PHI @ CHC Strikeouts matchups · Monday, April 20, 2026

PHI

Philadelphia Phillies

1–5

Final

CHC

Chicago Cubs

◆ Wrigley FieldElevation 595 ftCenter Field 400 ft☀ 50°F Partly CloudyWind 11 mph, R To L

Aaron Nola · RHP

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB27.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

CHC lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Nico Hoerner (R)12.6%3.0 PA

2Michael Busch (L)24.9%3.0 PA

3Alex Bregman (R)16.4%3.0 PA

4Ian Happ (L)24.2%3.0 PA

5Seiya Suzuki (R)26.0%3.0 PA

6Matt Shaw (R)21.9%2.1 PA

7Miguel Amaya (R)24.1%2.0 PA

8Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.5%2.0 PA

9Dansby Swanson (R)21.6%2.0 PA

Colin Rea · RHP

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

PHI lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Trea Turner (R)21.3%3.0 PA

2Kyle Schwarber (L)25.7%3.0 PA

3Bryce Harper (L)18.7%3.0 PA

4Adolis García (R)27.6%2.1 PA

5Brandon Marsh (L)22.6%2.0 PA

6Alec Bohm (R)20.6%2.0 PA

7Bryson Stott (L)19.4%2.0 PA

8Justin Crawford (L)21.8%2.0 PA

9Rafael Marchán (L)21.2%2.0 PA