Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, April 20, 2026)?

Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K against LAA. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Monday, April 20, 2026: Dylan Cease (~6.8 K), Jack Flaherty (~5.9 K), Aaron Nola (~5.3 K), Spencer Arrighetti (~5.7 K), Seth Lugo (~5.6 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Monday, April 20, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, April 20, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 6–8

DETaway

BOShomeTop matchup79 Final · 9–2

HOUaway

CLEhomeTop matchup60 Final · 6–1

CINaway

TBhomeTop matchup27 Final · 3–5

STLaway

MIAhomeTop matchup25 Final · 9–4

ATLaway

WSHhomeTop matchup38 Final · 7–5

BALaway

KChomeTop matchup51 Final · 1–5

PHIaway

CHChomeTop matchup64 Final · 12–3

LADaway

COLhomeTop matchup12 Final · 5–2

TORaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–4

ATHaway

SEAhomeTop matchup50

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.1% K/BF

vs LHB25.6%

vs RHB29.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)26.1%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)20.9%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)17.7%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)27.8%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)25.8%2.8

6. Jo Adell (R)23.4%2.0

7. Josh Lowe (L)26.3%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)24.5%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB28.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)22.9%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)26.8%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)24.1%3.0

4. Masataka Yoshida (L)17.6%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)27.3%2.7

6. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)19.0%2.0

7. Caleb Durbin (R)16.6%2.0

8. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.1%2.0

9. Carlos Narváez (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB27.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)12.6%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)24.9%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)16.4%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)24.2%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)26.0%3.0

6. Matt Shaw (R)21.9%2.1

7. Miguel Amaya (R)24.1%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.5%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.0% K/BF

vs LHB26.2%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)14.9%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)16.5%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)16.6%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)28.8%3.0

5. Rhys Hoskins (R)25.7%3.0

6. George Valera (L)21.1%2.4

7. Juan Brito (L)23.3%2.0

8. Bo Naylor (L)22.5%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.4% K/BF

vs LHB24.5%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.4%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)21.3%3.0

3. Dylan Beavers (L)25.4%3.0

4. Coby Mayo (R)25.1%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)24.8%3.0

6. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.9%2.0

7. Weston Wilson (R)27.1%2.0

8. Leody Taveras (L)20.8%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)26.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.5%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)23.3%3.0

3. Carlos Cortes (L)14.8%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)20.0%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)15.3%2.4

6. Jeff McNeil (L)17.7%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)30.5%2.0

8. Lawrence Butler (L)23.1%2.0

9. Denzel Clarke (R)31.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB24.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nathan Lukes (L)21.7%3.0

2. Ernie Clement (R)16.1%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.9%3.0

4. Jesús Sánchez (L)21.3%3.0

5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)19.6%3.0

6. Andrés Giménez (L)19.0%2.2

7. Daulton Varsho (L)19.0%2.0

8. Myles Straw (R)21.8%2.0

9. Tyler Heineman (R)19.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.7%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.6%3.0

3. Brady House (R)25.4%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)15.1%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)18.6%2.9

6. Jacob Young (R)20.3%2.0

7. José Tena (L)21.8%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)17.7%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)19.2%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)21.3%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)23.5%3.0

5. Lane Thomas (R)23.4%2.7

6. Nick Loftin (R)17.8%2.0

7. Elias Díaz (R)21.9%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (L)27.7%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Eli White (R)21.3%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)21.2%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)23.2%3.0

4. Austin Riley (R)23.5%3.0

5. Ozzie Albies (L)19.9%2.6

6. Michael Harris II (L)20.9%2.0

7. Dominic Smith (L)17.3%2.0

8. Jorge Mateo (R)22.0%2.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)21.7%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)25.4%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.5%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.3%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)23.3%2.0

6. Dane Myers (R)20.6%2.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)26.7%2.0

8. Rece Hinds (R)25.8%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)17.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.4%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.2%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)15.6%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)26.2%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)26.8%2.7

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.6%2.0

7. Ramón Urías (R)18.8%2.0

8. Thomas Saggese (R)25.2%2.0

9. José Fermín (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.3%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)25.7%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)18.7%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)27.6%2.1

5. Brandon Marsh (L)22.6%2.0

6. Alec Bohm (R)20.6%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)19.4%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)21.8%2.0

9. Rafael Marchán (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)17.2%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)19.7%3.0

3. Spencer Torkelson (R)24.7%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)24.1%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)19.2%2.7

6. Wenceel Pérez (L)20.3%2.0

7. Matt Vierling (R)22.0%2.0

8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)21.1%2.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.6% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB17.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jordan Beck (R)21.8%3.0

2. Brenton Doyle (R)23.8%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)30.7%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)19.9%3.0

5. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.4%2.5

6. Troy Johnston (L)19.1%2.0

7. Willi Castro (R)25.9%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)20.6%2.0

9. Brett Sullivan (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.0 BF

Expected batters faced19.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)20.7%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)25.2%2.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)24.2%2.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)18.4%2.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)20.6%2.0

6. Rob Refsnyder (R)22.1%2.0

7. Dominic Canzone (L)20.8%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)22.9%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.4% K/BF

vs LHB16.6%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)21.0%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)24.0%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)19.8%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)17.1%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)15.6%2.2

6. Agustín Ramírez (R)22.8%2.0

7. Owen Caissie (L)30.1%2.0

8. Graham Pauley (L)24.6%2.0

9. Connor Norby (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.5% K/BF

vs LHB17.6%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.9%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)22.9%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)22.0%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)15.8%3.0

5. Jake Fraley (L)22.1%3.0

6. Cedric Mullins (L)21.2%2.2

7. Nick Fortes (R)19.0%2.0

8. Richie Palacios (L)18.7%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB18.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carlos Correa (R)18.9%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)16.3%3.0

3. Jose Altuve (R)19.4%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)20.6%3.0

5. Isaac Paredes (R)21.3%2.7

6. Cam Smith (R)22.3%2.0

7. Yainer Diaz (R)19.6%2.0

8. Dustin Harris (L)18.9%2.0

9. Brice Matthews (R)27.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB17.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)21.8%3.0

2. Alex Call (R)19.6%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)23.3%3.0

4. Teoscar Hernández (R)22.9%3.0

5. Andy Pages (R)23.3%2.1

6. Max Muncy (L)25.8%2.0

7. Hyeseong Kim (L)23.1%2.0

8. Santiago Espinal (R)17.8%2.0

9. Dalton Rushing (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Monday, April 20, 2026

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the top strikeout start on the Monday, April 20, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K, with Jack Flaherty (DET) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K against LAA. He's missing bats at a 29% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and LAA has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Jack Flaherty (DET) (79) — about 5.9 K vs BOS: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Aaron Nola (PHI) (64) — about 5.3 K vs CHC: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) (60) — about 5.7 K vs CLE: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Seth Lugo (KC) (51) — about 5.6 K vs BAL: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) (50) — about 5.3 K vs ATH: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Seth Lugo is the arm to exploit it (51).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Dylan Cease is the arm to exploit it (100).
COL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Justin Wrobleski is the arm to exploit it (12).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Jesse Scholtens is the arm to exploit it (27).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.5 strikeouts. Top play Dylan Cease punched out 12. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, April 20, 2026)?: Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K against LAA. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Monday, April 20, 2026: Dylan Cease (~6.8 K), Jack Flaherty (~5.9 K), Aaron Nola (~5.3 K), Spencer Arrighetti (~5.7 K), Seth Lugo (~5.6 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Monday, April 20, 2026?: Dylan Cease punched out 12.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.