Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 10, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Max Scherzer. The lefty is going deep on .090 HR/PA against righties this year — and .030 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Max Scherzer has been thin against righties lately — — home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .191 in 21 career PA against Max Scherzer, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (93) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (85) vs RHP Andre Pallante: real bat at .048 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (79) vs LHP Reid Detmers: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (73) vs LHP Jake Bennett: real bat at .041 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hot bat.
- Ian Happ (CHC) (66) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (64) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (63) vs RHP Peter Lambert: solid bat at .040 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.043).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .090 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .049 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .059 against lefties this year.
- Ian Happ (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .056 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.