HOU @ BOS Strikeouts matchups · Saturday, May 2, 2026

HOU

Houston Astros

6–3

Final

BOS

Boston Red Sox

◆ Fenway ParkElevation 21 ftCenter Field 420 ft☀ 57°F OvercastWind 6 mph, Out To LF

Spencer Arrighetti · RHP

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

BOS lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Jarren Duran (L)23.6%3.0 PA

2Willson Contreras (R)26.2%3.0 PA

3Roman Anthony (L)25.3%3.0 PA

4Wilyer Abreu (L)21.4%3.0 PA

5Trevor Story (R)25.1%3.0 PA

6Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)18.9%2.8 PA

7Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.8%2.0 PA

8Connor Wong (R)19.2%2.0 PA

9Caleb Durbin (R)15.8%2.0 PA

Connelly Early · LHP

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

HOU lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA

1Carlos Correa (R)17.8%3.0 PA

2Yordan Alvarez (L)16.1%3.0 PA

3Isaac Paredes (R)18.2%3.0 PA

4Braden Shewmake (L)23.3%3.0 PA

5Jose Altuve (R)20.1%2.5 PA

6Yainer Diaz (R)19.3%2.0 PA

7Brice Matthews (R)29.4%2.0 PA

8Cam Smith (R)27.3%2.0 PA

9Dustin Harris (L)19.6%2.0 PA