Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, May 2, 2026)?

Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against LAA. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Saturday, May 2, 2026: Nolan McLean (~7.5 K), Dylan Cease (~6.5 K), Chris Sale (~6.3 K), Ryan Weathers (~5.9 K), Kyle Harrison (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, May 2, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, May 2, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 4–9

BALaway

NYYhomeTop matchup54 Final · 11–4

TORaway

MINhomeTop matchup73 Final · 0–2

AZaway

CHChomeTop matchup24 Final · 14–6

CLEaway

ATHhomeTop matchup23 Final · 7–17

CINaway

PIThomeTop matchup36 Final · 4–1

MILaway

WSHhomeTop matchup53 Final · 6–3

HOUaway

BOShomeTop matchup47 Final · 0–4

PHIaway

MIAhomeTop matchup41 Final · 1–5

SFaway

TBhomeTop matchup41 Final · 2–3

LADaway

STLhomeTop matchup30 Final · 1–5

TEXaway

DEThomeTop matchup31 Final · 9–1

ATLaway

COLhomeTop matchup66 Final · 4–0

CWSaway

SDhomeTop matchup50 Final · 3–4

NYMaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–2

KCaway

SEAhomeTop matchup34

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.9% K/BF

vs LHB25.8%

vs RHB30.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)25.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.0%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)23.4%3.0

3. Adam Frazier (L)24.7%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)27.8%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)25.5%2.8

6. Josh Lowe (L)25.7%2.0

7. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.3%2.0

8. Oswald Peraza (R)25.3%2.0

9. Sebastián Rivero (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate30.3% K/BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB31.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)25.0%3.0

2. Trevor Larnach (L)18.7%3.0

3. Josh Bell (L)18.5%3.0

4. Ryan Jeffers (R)22.2%3.0

5. Kody Clemens (L)24.9%3.0

6. Luke Keaschall (R)19.1%2.0

7. Matt Wallner (L)28.3%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (L)20.4%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.8% K/BF

vs LHB26.8%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jordan Beck (R)23.1%3.0

2. Brenton Doyle (R)21.3%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)18.1%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)28.0%3.0

5. Willi Castro (R)23.4%2.9

6. Brett Sullivan (L)19.8%2.0

7. Kyle Karros (R)24.7%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)27.7%2.0

9. Troy Johnston (L)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.5% K/BF

vs LHB27.5%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)18.2%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.7%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (R)17.7%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.8%3.0

5. Colton Cowser (L)26.8%2.9

6. Samuel Basallo (L)22.8%2.0

7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.2%2.0

8. Dylan Beavers (L)19.5%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB29.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.0%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)21.3%3.0

3. Brady House (R)24.6%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)25.6%2.5

5. Jacob Young (R)21.4%2.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)22.9%2.0

7. José Tena (L)21.7%2.0

8. Luis García Jr. (L)21.9%2.0

9. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.6% K/BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB28.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jesús Sánchez (L)23.2%3.0

2. Ernie Clement (R)15.3%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.1%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)20.9%3.0

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)24.3%2.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)21.6%2.0

7. Myles Straw (R)19.1%2.0

8. Davis Schneider (R)24.8%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.0% K/BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Andrew Benintendi (L)25.9%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.6%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.6%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)25.1%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)20.3%2.7

6. Derek Hill (R)26.1%2.0

7. Edgar Quero (L)20.6%2.0

8. Jarred Kelenic (L)24.2%2.0

9. Tristan Peters (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)23.6%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)26.2%3.0

3. Roman Anthony (L)25.3%3.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.4%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)25.1%3.0

6. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)18.9%2.8

7. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.8%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)19.2%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)15.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Bo Bichette (R)18.2%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)20.0%3.0

3. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.1%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)22.2%3.0

5. Marcus Semien (R)20.9%3.0

6. Carson Benge (L)26.4%2.2

7. Tyrone Taylor (R)21.3%2.0

8. MJ Melendez (L)21.0%2.0

9. Brett Baty (L)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB26.2%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)19.3%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)21.6%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)25.0%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)19.5%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.9%2.9

6. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.6%2.0

7. J.C. Escarra (L)24.1%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)26.9%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.9%3.0

2. Cedric Mullins (L)21.9%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)19.5%3.0

4. Jonathan Aranda (L)23.1%3.0

5. Ryan Vilade (R)21.5%2.9

6. Richie Palacios (L)21.3%2.0

7. Jonny DeLuca (R)19.7%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)17.3%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.1%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.4%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)18.4%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)23.3%3.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)21.3%2.6

6. Alec Bohm (R)18.1%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)21.8%2.0

8. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.4%2.0

9. Felix Reyes (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Rece Hinds (R)26.0%3.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)20.0%3.0

3. Matt McLain (R)27.5%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)19.4%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)20.7%2.1

6. Spencer Steer (R)23.4%2.0

7. Will Benson (L)25.5%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)27.4%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.8% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.2%3.0

2. Jared Triolo (R)23.9%3.0

3. Jake Mangum (L)22.7%3.0

4. Billy Cook (R)25.9%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)17.2%3.0

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)27.6%2.1

7. Spencer Horwitz (L)15.9%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)24.2%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Garrett Mitchell (L)24.9%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)21.2%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)20.5%3.0

4. Gary Sánchez (R)21.5%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)22.3%2.9

6. David Hamilton (L)20.2%2.0

7. Brandon Lockridge (R)26.2%2.0

8. Sal Frelick (L)19.9%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.3%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.7%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)17.0%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)25.3%3.0

5. Cole Young (L)21.4%3.0

6. Rob Refsnyder (R)22.3%2.8

7. Connor Joe (R)21.7%2.0

8. Mitch Garver (R)25.9%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Evan Carter (L)21.2%3.0

2. Corey Seager (L)20.7%3.0

3. Josh Jung (R)20.1%3.0

4. Joc Pederson (L)22.7%3.0

5. Jake Burger (R)27.2%2.4

6. Alejandro Osuna (L)20.9%2.0

7. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.8%2.0

8. Josh Smith (L)17.8%2.0

9. Danny Jansen (R)27.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.6% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)29.8%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.7%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)23.8%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)22.1%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.1%2.6

6. Gavin Sheets (L)21.0%2.0

7. Miguel Andujar (R)19.3%2.0

8. Luis Campusano (R)22.5%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.9% K/BF

vs LHB19.8%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.9%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)20.1%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.4%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)28.1%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.1%2.5

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.3%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)24.3%2.0

8. Ramón Urías (R)20.4%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)28.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)19.3%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)18.1%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)16.9%3.0

4. Lane Thomas (R)21.3%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)25.5%2.6

6. Jac Caglianone (L)27.0%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)24.8%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)18.5%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.2%3.0

2. Hao-Yu Lee (R)22.2%3.0

3. Colt Keith (L)19.5%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)25.0%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)20.8%3.0

6. Kerry Carpenter (L)26.2%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.2%2.0

8. Wenceel Pérez (L)17.8%2.0

9. Jace Jung (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.8% K/BF

vs LHB16.3%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)25.4%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)15.1%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)18.8%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)20.3%3.0

5. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.0%2.2

6. Max Muncy (L)19.6%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)21.8%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)23.9%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)17.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carlos Correa (R)17.8%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)16.1%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)18.2%3.0

4. Braden Shewmake (L)23.3%3.0

5. Jose Altuve (R)20.1%2.5

6. Yainer Diaz (R)19.3%2.0

7. Brice Matthews (R)29.4%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)27.3%2.0

9. Dustin Harris (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.1% K/BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Michael Busch (L)23.9%3.0

2. Moisés Ballesteros (L)17.0%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)16.1%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)25.6%2.7

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.8%2.0

6. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.2%2.0

7. Dansby Swanson (R)20.6%2.0

8. Matt Shaw (R)21.2%2.0

9. Miguel Amaya (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB17.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.5%3.0

2. Austin Wynns (R)22.9%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.2%3.0

4. Colby Thomas (R)31.0%3.0

5. Carlos Cortes (L)15.1%3.0

6. Brett Harris (R)20.3%2.1

7. Jeff McNeil (L)15.3%2.0

8. Lawrence Butler (L)24.2%2.0

9. Darell Hernaiz (R)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB27.8%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)19.9%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)17.5%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)21.8%3.0

4. Ildemaro Vargas (R)17.2%3.0

5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)18.8%2.6

6. Nolan Arenado (R)17.5%2.0

7. Jose Fernandez (R)22.7%2.0

8. James McCann (R)20.8%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB18.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)22.5%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)25.7%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)21.2%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)14.1%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)13.6%2.5

6. Agustín Ramírez (R)22.4%2.0

7. Connor Norby (R)29.8%2.0

8. Javier Sanoja (R)16.7%2.0

9. Esteury Ruiz (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.6% K/BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB26.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.9 BF

Expected batters faced13.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.1%2.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)10.2%2.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)20.7%2.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)28.0%2.0

5. Matt Chapman (R)23.2%1.9

6. Willy Adames (R)29.2%1.0

7. Heliot Ramos (R)25.7%1.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)19.7%1.0

9. Patrick Bailey (L)22.7%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)17.9%3.0

2. Angel Martínez (R)17.5%3.0

3. José Ramírez (R)16.7%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.2%2.8

5. Chase DeLauter (L)18.7%2.0

6. Petey Halpin (L)21.6%2.0

7. Travis Bazzana (L)23.5%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)19.6%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)18.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.4 BF

Expected batters faced13.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Eli White (R)22.8%2.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)17.8%2.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)13.2%2.0

4. Matt Olson (L)22.3%2.0

5. Dominic Smith (L)23.0%1.4

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.3%1.0

7. Austin Riley (R)22.7%1.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)23.7%1.0

9. Jorge Mateo (R)28.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Saturday, May 2, 2026

Nolan McLean (NYM) is the top strikeout start on the Saturday, May 2, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K, with Dylan Cease (TOR) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Nolan McLean

Nolan McLean (NYM) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against LAA. He's missing bats at a 30% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and LAA has been whiff-prone, going down 25% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Dylan Cease (TOR) (73) — about 6.5 K vs MIN: a 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Chris Sale (ATL) (66) — about 6.3 K vs COL: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Ryan Weathers (NYY) (54) — about 5.9 K vs BAL: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Kyle Harrison (MIL) (53) — about 5.5 K vs WSH: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Connor Prielipp (MIN) (51) — about 5.4 K vs TOR: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Nolan McLean is the arm to exploit it (100).
CWS is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Michael King is the arm to exploit it (50).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Carmen Mlodzinski is the arm to exploit it (36).
PIT is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Rhett Lowder is the arm to exploit it (36).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.9 strikeouts. Top play Nolan McLean punched out 6. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, May 2, 2026)?: Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against LAA. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Saturday, May 2, 2026: Nolan McLean (~7.5 K), Dylan Cease (~6.5 K), Chris Sale (~6.3 K), Ryan Weathers (~5.9 K), Kyle Harrison (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Saturday, May 2, 2026?: Nolan McLean punched out 6.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.