PHI @ MIA Strikeouts matchups · Monday, May 4, 2026

PHI

Philadelphia Phillies

1–0

Final

MIA

Miami Marlins

◆ loanDepot parkElevation 10 ftCenter Field 407 ft☀ 72°F Roof ClosedWind 0 mph, None

Aaron Nola · RHP

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

MIA lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Jakob Marsee (L)22.6%3.0 PA

2Javier Sanoja (R)17.3%3.0 PA

3Otto Lopez (R)20.9%3.0 PA

4Xavier Edwards (L)13.9%3.0 PA

5Liam Hicks (L)14.4%3.0 PA

6Christopher Morel (R)22.3%2.1 PA

7Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0 PA

8Esteury Ruiz (R)26.1%2.0 PA

9Connor Norby (R)29.6%2.0 PA

Janson Junk · RHP

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB18.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

PHI lineup · K rate vs RHPExp PA

1Trea Turner (R)20.7%3.0 PA

2Kyle Schwarber (L)28.2%3.0 PA

3Bryce Harper (L)18.6%3.0 PA

4Adolis García (R)23.2%3.0 PA

5Brandon Marsh (L)20.8%2.6 PA

6Bryson Stott (L)20.9%2.0 PA

7Alec Bohm (R)17.9%2.0 PA

8Garrett Stubbs (L)20.4%2.0 PA

9Justin Crawford (L)17.3%2.0 PA