Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, May 4, 2026)?

Edward Cabrera (CHC) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against CIN. A 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Monday, May 4, 2026: Edward Cabrera (~6.2 K), Cam Schlittler (~6.3 K), Davis Martin (~6.1 K), Payton Tolle (~6.2 K), José Soriano (~5.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Monday, May 4, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, May 4, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 4–2

NYMaway

COLhomeTop matchup25 Final · 5–4

BOSaway

DEThomeTop matchup85 Final · 1–5

TORaway

TBhomeTop matchup37 Final · 1–0

PHIaway

MIAhomeTop matchup74 Final · 1–12

BALaway

NYYhomeTop matchup98 Final · 4–5

CINaway

CHChomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–6

CLEaway

KChomeTop matchup52 Final · 3–6

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup37 Final · 8–3

LADaway

HOUhomeTop matchup73 Final · 6–0

CWSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup90 Final · 4–5

ATLaway

SEAhomeTop matchup63 Final · 2–3

SDaway

SFhomeTop matchup76

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB17.1%

vs RHB27.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)21.8%3.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)19.6%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.6%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.1%3.0

5. Blake Dunn (R)26.7%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)24.0%2.4

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)26.7%2.0

8. Matt McLain (R)26.1%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.1% K/BF

vs LHB26.3%

vs RHB25.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)26.6%3.0

2. Adley Rutschman (L)18.6%3.0

3. Dylan Beavers (L)24.0%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)20.8%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)25.1%2.7

6. Leody Taveras (L)20.3%2.0

7. Colton Cowser (L)27.1%2.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)21.1%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)27.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.5%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.1%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)15.6%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)28.2%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)27.3%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)24.6%2.4

7. Josh Lowe (L)24.5%2.0

8. Travis d'Arnaud (R)22.1%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.0% K/BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kerry Carpenter (L)24.2%3.0

2. Matt Vierling (R)18.4%3.0

3. Dillon Dingler (R)20.3%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)25.7%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)22.8%2.6

6. Wenceel Pérez (R)20.4%2.0

7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)26.4%2.0

8. Colt Keith (L)22.5%2.0

9. Zack Short (R)28.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.3%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.7%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)20.2%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)23.6%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)22.6%3.0

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)26.6%2.1

7. Jarred Kelenic (L)22.5%2.0

8. Derek Hill (R)26.3%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)29.7%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.9%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)22.5%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)22.0%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.9%3.0

6. Gavin Sheets (L)21.2%2.0

7. Miguel Andujar (R)18.9%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)20.5%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)22.6%3.0

2. Javier Sanoja (R)17.3%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)20.9%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)13.9%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)14.4%3.0

6. Christopher Morel (R)22.3%2.1

7. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

8. Esteury Ruiz (R)26.1%2.0

9. Connor Norby (R)29.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carlos Correa (R)21.3%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.6%3.0

3. Braden Shewmake (L)21.7%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)19.3%3.0

5. Jose Altuve (R)18.8%3.0

6. Brice Matthews (R)26.7%2.6

7. Cam Smith (R)26.9%2.0

8. Zach Cole (L)29.7%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)23.3%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)17.4%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.0%3.0

4. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.9%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)26.7%2.9

6. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.6%2.0

7. Michael Harris II (L)19.4%2.0

8. Eli White (R)20.6%2.0

9. José Azócar (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.1%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.8%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)17.4%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)25.0%3.0

5. Rob Refsnyder (R)22.5%3.0

6. Connor Joe (R)21.7%2.5

7. Cole Young (L)21.8%2.0

8. Mitch Garver (R)28.4%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)18.4%3.0

2. Max Schuemann (R)22.0%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)18.7%3.0

4. Jasson Domínguez (L)21.2%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.1%3.0

6. Paul Goldschmidt (R)20.3%2.9

7. Austin Wells (L)20.9%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)26.1%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)13.7%3.0

2. Daniel Schneemann (L)26.9%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)17.1%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.6%3.0

5. Travis Bazzana (L)19.4%3.0

6. David Fry (R)25.5%2.7

7. Angel Martínez (L)24.5%2.0

8. Bo Naylor (L)23.6%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)14.9%3.0

2. Casey Schmitt (R)21.3%3.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)10.2%3.0

4. Heliot Ramos (R)25.0%3.0

5. Rafael Devers (L)27.4%2.9

6. Willy Adames (R)29.6%2.0

7. Bryce Eldridge (L)28.2%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)22.4%2.0

9. Drew Gilbert (L)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.4% K/BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.5%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.2%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)18.1%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)21.0%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)26.7%2.5

6. Lane Thomas (R)21.4%2.0

7. Jac Caglianone (L)25.6%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (L)22.8%2.0

9. Nick Loftin (R)17.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

2. Kazuma Okamoto (R)26.4%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.1%3.0

4. Jesús Sánchez (L)20.2%3.0

5. Ernie Clement (R)12.8%3.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)20.5%2.6

7. Myles Straw (R)16.9%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.6%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.1% K/BF

vs LHB18.0%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.6%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)20.6%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.2%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)27.2%2.3

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.5%2.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)21.6%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)23.2%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)22.2%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Garrett Mitchell (L)31.1%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)19.6%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)21.3%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)14.6%3.0

5. Tyler Black (L)22.9%2.7

6. Andrew Vaughn (R)21.0%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)13.4%2.0

8. Luis Rengifo (L)16.1%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB18.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)20.7%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)28.2%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)18.6%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)23.2%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)20.8%2.6

6. Bryson Stott (L)20.9%2.0

7. Alec Bohm (R)17.9%2.0

8. Garrett Stubbs (L)20.4%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)17.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB18.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)4.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)12.7%3.0

2. Michael Conforto (L)22.3%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)17.2%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)24.9%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)24.8%3.0

6. Michael Busch (L)23.7%2.0

7. Carson Kelly (R)20.6%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.9%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.2% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB18.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)17.5%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)18.7%3.0

3. Cedric Mullins (L)19.6%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)19.6%2.9

5. Jonathan Aranda (L)26.1%2.0

6. Jonny DeLuca (R)22.4%2.0

7. Ben Williamson (R)22.1%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)19.9%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.4% K/BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB17.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Juan Soto (L)17.8%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)19.2%3.0

3. Tyrone Taylor (R)19.5%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)24.6%3.0

5. Brett Baty (L)23.1%2.5

6. Marcus Semien (R)19.8%2.0

7. Carson Benge (L)20.0%2.0

8. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.4%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.9 BF

Expected batters faced13.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Mickey Moniak (L)21.1%2.0

2. Tyler Freeman (R)16.1%2.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)17.6%2.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)30.2%2.0

5. Willi Castro (L)25.6%1.9

6. Troy Johnston (L)21.4%1.0

7. Kyle Karros (R)21.2%1.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.9%1.0

9. Edouard Julien (L)25.7%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.2 BF

Expected batters faced13.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)20.2%2.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)19.5%2.0

3. Will Smith (R)21.6%2.0

4. Teoscar Hernández (R)20.8%2.0

5. Kyle Tucker (L)20.6%1.3

6. Max Muncy (L)22.7%1.0

7. Andy Pages (R)22.4%1.0

8. Hyeseong Kim (L)24.9%1.0

9. Alex Freeland (R)25.5%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB18.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.0 BF

Expected batters faced14.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)21.1%2.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)23.3%2.0

3. Aroldis Chapman (L)22.0%2.0

4. Trevor Story (R)25.5%2.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)17.4%2.0

6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)26.1%1.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)20.9%1.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)20.5%1.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)18.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Monday, May 4, 2026

Edward Cabrera (CHC) is the top strikeout start on the Monday, May 4, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K, with Cam Schlittler (NYY) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Edward Cabrera

Edward Cabrera (CHC) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against CIN. He's missing bats at a 22% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and CIN has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Cam Schlittler (NYY) (98) — about 6.3 K vs BAL: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Davis Martin (CWS) (90) — about 6.1 K vs LAA: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Payton Tolle (BOS) (85) — about 6.2 K vs DET: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
José Soriano (LAA) (76) — about 5.9 K vs CWS: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Trevor McDonald (SF) (76) — about 5.3 K vs SD: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Davis Martin is the arm to exploit it (90).
CIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Edward Cabrera is the arm to exploit it (100).
BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Cam Schlittler is the arm to exploit it (98).
DET is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Payton Tolle is the arm to exploit it (85).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.2 strikeouts. Top play Edward Cabrera punched out 8. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, May 4, 2026)?: Edward Cabrera (CHC) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against CIN. A 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Monday, May 4, 2026: Edward Cabrera (~6.2 K), Cam Schlittler (~6.3 K), Davis Martin (~6.1 K), Payton Tolle (~6.2 K), José Soriano (~5.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Monday, May 4, 2026?: Edward Cabrera punched out 8.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.