MatchWiz
Strikeouts · Thursday, May 28, 2026

ATL @ BOS Strikeouts matchups · Thursday, May 28, 2026

ATL
ATL
Atlanta Braves
102
Final
BOS
Boston Red Sox
BOS
Fenway ParkElevation 21 ftCenter Field 420 ft 68°F Partly CloudyWind 4 mph, In From CF

ATL Chris Sale · LHP

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.6% K/BF

vs LHB28.0%
vs RHB27.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BRBetRivers-105-127
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings+107-136
FANFanatics+105-140
FDFanDuel+100-132

We project 6.3 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

BOS lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Jarren Duran (L)22.1%3.0 PA
2Ceddanne Rafaela (R)26.5%3.0 PA
3Wilyer Abreu (L)17.7%3.0 PA
4Willson Contreras (R)20.4%3.0 PA
5Andruw Monasterio (R)20.6%3.0 PA
6Marcelo Mayer (L)23.0%2.9 PA
7Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)21.4%2.0 PA
8Carlos Narváez (R)19.9%2.0 PA
9Caleb Durbin (R)17.1%2.0 PA

BOS Payton Tolle · LHP

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.9% K/BF

vs LHB19.0%
vs RHB27.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BRBetRivers-110-121
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings-106-120
FDFanDuel+102-124

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

ATL lineup · K rate vs LHPExp PA
1Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)24.0%3.0 PA
2Mauricio Dubón (R)16.7%3.0 PA
3Matt Olson (L)21.8%3.0 PA
4Ozzie Albies (R)11.9%3.0 PA
5Austin Riley (R)27.9%3.0 PA
6Michael Harris II (L)22.3%2.1 PA
7Jorge Mateo (R)26.4%2.0 PA
8Dominic Smith (L)21.3%2.0 PA
9Chadwick Tromp (R)25.1%2.0 PA