Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, March 27, 2026
Top hits spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Yusei Kikuchi. The lefty is hitting — H/PA against lefties this year, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Yusei Kikuchi has been thin against lefties lately — — hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Yusei Kikuchi too — .355 across 31 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: an excellent bat at .297 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Griffin Conine (MIA) (92) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .269 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (86) vs LHP Robbie Ray: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Jakob Marsee (MIA) (85) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Cody Bellinger (NYY) (83) vs LHP Robbie Ray: an excellent bat at .291 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (80) vs LHP Chris Sale: an excellent bat at .287 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (78) vs LHP Cole Ragans: a strong bat at .264 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Griffin Conine (MIA), Jakob Marsee (MIA), and Agustín Ramírez (MIA).
Platoon edges to target
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .200 against righties this year.
- Xander Bogaerts (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .667 against lefties this year.
- Kyle Tucker (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .200 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.