Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, April 5, 2026
Top hits spot: Trea Turner
Trea Turner (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The righty is hitting .391 H/PA against righties this year — and .391 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been tough on righties lately — .100 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Tomoyuki Sugano, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Troy Johnston (COL) (92) vs RHP Taijuan Walker: a strong bat at .268 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.304), hitter's park.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (91) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: an elite bat at .301 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
- Ezequiel Tovar (COL) (88) vs RHP Taijuan Walker: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.500), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (88) vs RHP Simeon Woods Richardson: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400).
- Miguel Rojas (LAD) (83) vs LHP Foster Griffin: an excellent bat at .270 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308), due to bounce back.
- Jose Altuve (HOU) (82) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (79) vs RHP Taijuan Walker: a strong bat at .267 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.304), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Jahmai Jones (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).
- RHP Nick Martinez has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Byron Buxton (MIN), Luke Keaschall (MIN), and Ryan Jeffers (MIN).
- RHP Davis Martin has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Jesús Sánchez (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).
- RHP Simeon Woods Richardson has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB).
Platoon edges to target
- Troy Johnston (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
- Miguel Rojas (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year.
- Jose Altuve (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .333 against lefties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .308 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .276 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Trea Turner (PHI) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Trea Turner (PHI), Ezequiel Tovar (COL), Matt Olson (ATL), Iván Herrera (STL), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), and Andy Pages (LAD). Cold but due to bounce back: Miguel Rojas (LAD), TJ Rumfield (COL), Hunter Goodman (COL), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Byron Buxton (MIN).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Trea Turner finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.