Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, April 7, 2026
Top hits spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The lefty is hitting .409 H/PA against lefties this year — and .409 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 30% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been mostly holding up against lefties lately — .222 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Kyle Freeland, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (99) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .264 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.235), hitter's park.
- Brendan Donovan (SEA) (98) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: a strong bat at .259 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.458), due to bounce back.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (95) vs RHP Javier Assad: an excellent bat at .288 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hot bat.
- Jose Altuve (HOU) (91) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.235), hitter's park.
- Griffin Conine (MIA) (88) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a solid bat at .244 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.500), due to bounce back.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (88) vs RHP Mike Burrows: a strong bat at .256 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.281), hitter's park.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (83) vs RHP Mike Burrows: a strong bat at .259 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278), hitter's park.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Nathan Eovaldi has been getting tattooed by righties — .301 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brendan Donovan (SEA), Cal Raleigh (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA).
- LHP Andrew Abbott has been getting tattooed by lefties — .291 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Griffin Conine (MIA), Jakob Marsee (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA).
- RHP Shane Smith has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL).
- RHP Cade Cavalli has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
Platoon edges to target
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .375 against lefties this year.
- Brendan Donovan (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .286 against righties this year.
- Jose Altuve (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .318 against lefties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
- Troy Johnston (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .346 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Yandy Díaz (TB), Andy Pages (LAD), Jorbit Vivas (WSH), Teoscar Hernández (LAD), Oneil Cruz (PIT), and Trea Turner (PHI). Cold but due to bounce back: Brendan Donovan (SEA), Griffin Conine (MIA), Austin Riley (ATL), Jakob Marsee (MIA), and Alec Burleson (STL).
How it played out
4 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.