Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, April 25, 2026
Top hits spot: Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigle (DET) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brady Singer. The lefty is hitting .276 H/PA against righties this year — and .350 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Brady Singer has been giving up plenty to righties lately — .258 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brady Singer too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (91) vs RHP Eury Pérez: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (90) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: a strong bat at .256 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.405), due to bounce back.
- Moisés Ballesteros (CHC) (86) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: an elite bat at .328 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Colt Keith (DET) (84) vs RHP Brady Singer: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.258).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (84) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm tough on the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Riley Greene (DET) (83) vs RHP Brady Singer: an excellent bat at .270 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.258), hot bat.
- Michael Busch (CHC) (82) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a solid bat at .240 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Trevor Rogers has been vulnerable to lefties — .284 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Andruw Monasterio (BOS).
- LHP Garrett Crochet has been vulnerable to lefties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Taylor Ward (BAL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Tyler O'Neill (BAL).
- RHP Zac Gallen has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ramón Laureano (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).
- RHP Mike Burrows has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ben Rice (NYY), Cody Bellinger (NYY), and Aaron Judge (NYY).
Platoon edges to target
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .276 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .319 against righties this year.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .350 against lefties this year.
- Moisés Ballesteros (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .368 against righties this year.
- Colt Keith (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .329 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Riley Greene (DET), Michael Busch (CHC), Ernie Clement (TOR), and Carter Jensen (KC). Cold but due to bounce back: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), Jorge Barrosa (AZ), Brice Turang (MIL), and Willson Contreras (BOS).
How it played out
10 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Kevin McGonigle finished with 3 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.