MatchWiz
Home Runs · Wednesday, June 17, 2026

SD @ STL Home Runs matchups · Wednesday, June 17, 2026

SD
SD
San Diego Padres
vs
2:15 PM EDT
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
STL
Busch StadiumElevation 460 ftCenter Field 400 ft

SD SD Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from SD's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).

Hits / BF vs LH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00021 BF
Season.038157 BF
Last 2 Years.033366 BF
wOBA allowed.412
Hard-Hit %47%

Hits / BF vs RH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05020 BF
Season.022134 BF
Last 2 Years.015402 BF
wOBA allowed.315
Hard-Hit %34%

Lower hits/BF = the pitcher suppresses hits to that side. wOBA / Hard-Hit % = how hard that side squares him up.

Order · HitterMatchup

Context

Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.028

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.02148 PA
Season.004240 PA
Last 2 Years.033847 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ BAL0
Jun 13@ BAL0
Jun 14@ BAL0
Jun 15@ STL0
Jun 16@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA
Season.022134 PA
Last 2 Years.015402 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.030

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.044206 PA
Season.0291100 PA
Last 2 Years.0273998 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.324
Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.308
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.000
Plate Appearances5

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.146

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.035

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.02540 PA
Season.024209 PA
Last 2 Years.043787 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ BAL0
Jun 13@ BAL1
Jun 14@ BAL0
Jun 15@ STL0
Jun 16@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00021 PA
Season.038157 PA
Last 2 Years.033366 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.023174 PA
Season.0301066 PA
Last 2 Years.0293217 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.319
Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.340
Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.250
Plate Appearances4

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.165

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.037

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05338 PA
Season.042216 PA
Last 2 Years.0421019 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ BAL0
Jun 13@ BAL1
Jun 14@ BAL0
Jun 15@ STL0
Jun 16@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA
Season.022134 PA
Last 2 Years.015402 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.030

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.044206 PA
Season.0291100 PA
Last 2 Years.0273998 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.311
Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.308
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.167
Plate Appearances6

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.16

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 4 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.030

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00027 PA
Season.035197 PA
Last 2 Years.027785 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ BAL0
Jun 13@ BAL0
Jun 14@ BAL0
Jun 15@ STL0
Jun 16@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA
Season.022134 PA
Last 2 Years.015402 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.030

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.044206 PA
Season.0291100 PA
Last 2 Years.0273998 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.315
Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.308
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.333
Plate Appearances3

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.124

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~2.7× / ~1.6×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.038

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.06133 PA
Season.059186 PA
Last 2 Years.038781 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ BAL0
Jun 13@ BAL1
Jun 14@ BAL0
Jun 15@ STL0
Jun 16@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00021 PA
Season.038157 PA
Last 2 Years.033366 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.023174 PA
Season.0301066 PA
Last 2 Years.0293217 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.326
Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.340
Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.000
Plate Appearances2

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.169

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 8-game hitting streak

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.033

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04323 PA
Season.04323 PA
Last 2 Years.03826 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 10vs CIN0
Jun 12@ BAL0
Jun 13@ BAL1
Jun 14@ BAL0
Jun 16@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA
Season.022134 PA
Last 2 Years.015402 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.030

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.044206 PA
Season.0291100 PA
Last 2 Years.0273998 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.325
Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.308
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.145

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.030

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00025 PA
Season.05296 PA
Last 2 Years.022678 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 9vs CIN0
Jun 10vs CIN0
Jun 12@ BAL0
Jun 15@ STL0
Jun 16@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA
Season.022134 PA
Last 2 Years.015402 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.030

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.044206 PA
Season.0291100 PA
Last 2 Years.0273998 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.311
Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.308
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.000
Plate Appearances4

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.113

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 3 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00014 PA
Season.00014 PA
Last 2 Years.005207 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ BAL0
Jun 13@ BAL0
Jun 14@ BAL0
Jun 15@ STL0
Jun 16@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00021 PA
Season.038157 PA
Last 2 Years.033366 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.023174 PA
Season.0301066 PA
Last 2 Years.0293217 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.327
Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.340
Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.103

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 10vs CIN0
Jun 13@ BAL1
Jun 14@ BAL1
Jun 15@ STL0
Jun 16@ STL0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA
Season.022134 PA
Last 2 Years.015402 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.030

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.044206 PA
Season.0291100 PA
Last 2 Years.0273998 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.308
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.000
Plate Appearances2

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.123

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

STL STL Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from STL's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).
?
Probable pitcher not announcedMatchups for this lineup are shown neutrally for now and will sharpen automatically once the opposing starter is posted (usually a day or two before first pitch).
Order · HitterMatchup

Context

Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.033

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.02442 PA
Season.034295 PA
Last 2 Years.034295 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 11@ NYM0
Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 14@ MIN1
Jun 15vs SD0
Jun 16vs SD0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.042237 PA
Season.0251126 PA
Last 2 Years.0253921 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.328
Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.157

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 3 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.033

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.03360 PA
Season.029314 PA
Last 2 Years.035849 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 13@ MIN2
Jun 14@ MIN0
Jun 15vs SD0
Jun 16vs SD0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.043230 PA
Season.029976 PA
Last 2 Years.0303964 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.350
Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.168

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 16-game hitting streak

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.038

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10259 PA
Season.044298 PA
Last 2 Years.0351223 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ MIN1
Jun 13@ MIN0
Jun 14@ MIN1
Jun 15vs SD0
Jun 16vs SD0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.042237 PA
Season.0251126 PA
Last 2 Years.0253921 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.341
Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.195

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.039

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05159 PA
Season.061293 PA
Last 2 Years.036800 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 13@ MIN1
Jun 14@ MIN0
Jun 15vs SD0
Jun 16vs SD0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.043230 PA
Season.029976 PA
Last 2 Years.0303964 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.329
Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.191

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.031

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05437 PA
Season.05437 PA
Last 2 Years.026861 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 13@ MIN0
Jun 14@ MIN0
Jun 15vs SD0
Jun 16vs SD0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.042237 PA
Season.0251126 PA
Last 2 Years.0253921 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.318
Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.142

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.023

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.01952 PA
Season.008263 PA
Last 2 Years.0191209 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 13@ MIN0
Jun 14@ MIN0
Jun 15vs SD0
Jun 16vs SD0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.043230 PA
Season.029976 PA
Last 2 Years.0303964 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.303
Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.09

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04025 PA
Season.03628 PA
Last 2 Years.02774 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 9@ NYM0
Jun 11@ NYM1
Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 15vs SD0
Jun 16vs SD0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.042237 PA
Season.0251126 PA
Last 2 Years.0253921 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.309
Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.127

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 13@ MIN1
Jun 14@ MIN0
Jun 15vs SD0
Jun 16vs SD0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.043230 PA
Season.029976 PA
Last 2 Years.0303964 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.125

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00022 PA
Season.028178 PA
Last 2 Years.025243 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 13@ MIN0
Jun 14@ MIN0
Jun 15vs SD0
Jun 16vs SD0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.042237 PA
Season.0251126 PA
Last 2 Years.0253921 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact

wOBA.310
Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.103

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.