Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Braxton Ashcraft. The lefty is going deep on .051 HR/PA against righties this year — and .103 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Braxton Ashcraft has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .050 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Braxton Ashcraft, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (88) vs RHP Casey Mize: real bat at .047 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (88) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: big-time bat at .053 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (84) vs RHP Luinder Avila: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091), hot bat.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (72) vs RHP Javier Assad: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (70) vs RHP the starter: real bat at .044 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (67) vs RHP Aaron Civale: real bat at .047 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (65) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .045 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
252 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.