MatchWiz
Home Runs · Wednesday, June 17, 2026

TOR @ BOS Home Runs matchups · Wednesday, June 17, 2026

TOR
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
vs
6:45 PM EDT
BOS
Boston Red Sox
BOS
Fenway ParkElevation 21 ftCenter Field 420 ft

TOR TOR Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from TOR's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).

Hits / BF vs LH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Hits / BF vs RH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Lower hits/BF = the pitcher suppresses hits to that side. wOBA / Hard-Hit % = how hard that side squares him up.

Order · HitterMatchup

Context

Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.035

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.06316 PA
Season.03361 PA
Last 2 Years.041293 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 10vs PHI0
Jun 12vs NYY1
Jun 13vs NYY0
Jun 14vs NYY0
Jun 16@ BOS1

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00036 PA
Season.006154 PA
Last 2 Years.024213 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.328
Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.161

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.06316 PA
Season.03781 PA
Last 2 Years.031359 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 10vs PHI0
Jun 12vs NYY0
Jun 13vs NYY0
Jun 14vs NYY0
Jun 16@ BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00036 PA
Season.006154 PA
Last 2 Years.024213 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.325
Hard-Hit %30%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.128

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.033

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00012 PA
Season.03164 PA
Last 2 Years.040303 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 8vs PHI0
Jun 9vs PHI0
Jun 10vs PHI0
Jun 12vs NYY0
Jun 16@ BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00036 PA
Season.006154 PA
Last 2 Years.024213 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.346
Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.166

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.031

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.0003 PA
Season.0008 PA
Last 2 Years.028216 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Apr 1vs COL0
Apr 3@ CWS0
Jun 12vs NYY0
Jun 14vs NYY0
Jun 16@ BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00036 PA
Season.006154 PA
Last 2 Years.024213 PA

HR EnvironmentTough -3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.322
Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.14

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~2.5× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.036

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.07713 PA
Season.05869 PA
Last 2 Years.05869 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 10vs PHI0
Jun 12vs NYY1
Jun 13vs NYY1
Jun 14vs NYY0
Jun 16@ BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00036 PA
Season.006154 PA
Last 2 Years.024213 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.324
Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.154

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.028

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00015 PA
Season.00019 PA
Last 2 Years.00086 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 10vs PHI0
Jun 12vs NYY0
Jun 13vs NYY0
Jun 14vs NYY0
Jun 16@ BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00018 PA
Season.03361 PA
Last 2 Years.04076 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.311
Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.107

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.0002 PA
Season.00052 PA
Last 2 Years.016255 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

May 23vs PIT0
May 24vs PIT0
Jun 12vs NYY0
Jun 14vs NYY1
Jun 16@ BOS1

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00036 PA
Season.006154 PA
Last 2 Years.024213 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.304
Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.096

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00010 PA
Season.01662 PA
Last 2 Years.008238 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 9vs PHI0
Jun 10vs PHI0
Jun 12vs NYY0
Jun 13vs NYY0
Jun 16@ BOS1

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00018 PA
Season.03361 PA
Last 2 Years.04076 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.293
Hard-Hit %31%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.087

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 3 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00014 PA
Season.01473 PA
Last 2 Years.009220 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 8vs PHI0
Jun 10vs PHI0
Jun 12vs NYY0
Jun 14vs NYY0
Jun 16@ BOS0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00036 PA
Season.006154 PA
Last 2 Years.024213 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.311
Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.098

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

BOS BOS Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from BOS's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).

Hits / BF vs LH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Hits / BF vs RH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Lower hits/BF = the pitcher suppresses hits to that side. wOBA / Hard-Hit % = how hard that side squares him up.

Order · HitterMatchup

Context

Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00026 PA
Season.007133 PA
Last 2 Years.022541 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 7@ NYY0
Jun 9@ TB0
Jun 10@ TB0
Jun 14vs TEX0
Jun 16vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00013 PA
Season.025161 PA
Last 2 Years.027734 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.321
Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.667
Plate Appearances6

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.125

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~2.7× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.028

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.03033 PA
Season.026192 PA
Last 2 Years.024847 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 10@ TB1
Jun 12vs TEX1
Jun 13vs TEX0
Jun 14vs TEX0
Jun 16vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.0009 PA
Season.008119 PA
Last 2 Years.021697 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.322
Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.667
Plate Appearances3

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.121

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.038

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05636 PA
Season.034205 PA
Last 2 Years.047773 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 10@ TB0
Jun 12vs TEX1
Jun 13vs TEX0
Jun 14vs TEX0
Jun 16vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00013 PA
Season.025161 PA
Last 2 Years.027734 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.322
Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.500
Plate Appearances2

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.178

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.040

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10837 PA
Season.053206 PA
Last 2 Years.042793 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 10@ TB0
Jun 12vs TEX1
Jun 13vs TEX0
Jun 14vs TEX2
Jun 16vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.0009 PA
Season.008119 PA
Last 2 Years.021697 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.350
Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.143
Plate Appearances14

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.178

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 6-game hitting streak

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.036

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05735 PA
Season.047212 PA
Last 2 Years.036982 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 10@ TB0
Jun 12vs TEX0
Jun 13vs TEX1
Jun 14vs TEX0
Jun 16vs TOR1

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00013 PA
Season.025161 PA
Last 2 Years.027734 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.328
Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.167
Plate Appearances6

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.173

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 4 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.025

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.02836 PA
Season.012167 PA
Last 2 Years.017540 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 10@ TB2
Jun 12vs TEX0
Jun 13vs TEX0
Jun 14vs TEX0
Jun 16vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.0009 PA
Season.008119 PA
Last 2 Years.021697 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -2%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.302
Hard-Hit %31%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.000
Plate Appearances2

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.093

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.021

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00033 PA
Season.00080 PA
Last 2 Years.006623 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 10@ TB0
Jun 12vs TEX0
Jun 13vs TEX0
Jun 14vs TEX0
Jun 16vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.0009 PA
Season.008119 PA
Last 2 Years.021697 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.316
Hard-Hit %30%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.400
Plate Appearances10

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.076

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.025

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00029 PA
Season.005185 PA
Last 2 Years.017294 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 9@ TB0
Jun 12vs TEX0
Jun 13vs TEX0
Jun 14vs TEX0
Jun 16vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00013 PA
Season.025161 PA
Last 2 Years.027734 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.298
Hard-Hit %31%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.085

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Context

Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.024

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.0008 PA
Season.00062 PA
Last 2 Years.010412 PA

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

May 31@ CLE0
Jun 4vs BAL0
Jun 5@ NYY0
Jun 12vs TEX0
Jun 16vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

No MLB track record yet — scored at league average, so expect more uncertainty in this matchup.

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.0009 PA
Season.008119 PA
Last 2 Years.021697 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral -1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.311
Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.085

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.