MLB strongest leans
The spots where our model disagrees most with the market — top moneyline, run-total, team-total, NRFI, and player-prop (HR / hits) leans, per market. These are informational research signals, not official plays: an efficient market can still misprice individual games, and this is where we surface those and grade them in the open. Like our plays, a lean only posts once that game's lineups are final — so nothing here appears and then vanishes after you've acted on it. Our proven-edge plays live on the Plays hub; see the full model on the Moneyline and NRFI boards.
Team Total
Our leans: 55% · 984 · +1% ROITeam totals are the softest team market — our strong leans (≥1.25 runs) are the ones we post as plays. The rest live here, graded.
NRFI / YRFI
Our leans: 49% · 502 · -6% ROIFirst inning is heavily bet and sharp. The ★ strong disagreements (≥8%) have shown a thin, real edge; these are our biggest, graded in the open.
Run Total
Our leans: 52% · 463 · -1% ROIGame totals are efficiently priced — books nail them. Our strongest over/under disagreements, graded honestly rather than posted.
Moneyline
Our leans: 53% · 493 · -3% ROIThe moneyline is the sharpest market of all — don't expect a durable edge. Shown for transparency: where we disagree most with the book.
Home Runs
Over 0.5 · season: 11% · 26958 · -21% ROIHitters we make a better home-run bet than the price implies — our P is calibrated (not Poisson-inflated). Rare: HR overs are efficiently priced (see the season record), so this is transparency, not plays.
Lines for this market post through the morning — leans surface here as they do and lineups lock.
Hits
Over 0.5 · season: 58% · 26958 · -4% ROIContact hitters we make more likely for a knock than the price implies. Efficiently priced, so genuine over-edges are uncommon — graded honestly.
Lines for this market post through the morning — leans surface here as they do and lineups lock.
RBI
Over 0.5 · season: 29% · 13602 · -10% ROIRun-driving spots we rate above the price. RBI is lumpy and efficiently priced — real over-edges are rare.
Lines for this market post through the morning — leans surface here as they do and lineups lock.
Runs
Over 0.5 · season: 38% · 13602 · -8% ROIRun-scoring spots we rate above the price. Efficiently priced; rare over-edges, graded in the open.
Lines for this market post through the morning — leans surface here as they do and lineups lock.
Walks
Over 0.5 · season: 28% · 13602 · -13% ROIPlate-discipline spots we rate above the price. Thin market — over-edges are rare.
Lines for this market post through the morning — leans surface here as they do and lineups lock.
Stolen Bases
Over 0.5 · season: 6% · 13602 · -47% ROISteal spots we rate above the price. A very efficient longshot market — over-edges are rare.
Lines for this market post through the morning — leans surface here as they do and lineups lock.
Informational model-vs-market disagreements, each graded against the line posted when it surfaced — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. Lines move; confirm at the book. 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).