MLB · Strongest leans
MLB strongest leans
The spots where our model disagrees most with the market — top moneyline, run-total, team-total, NRFI, and player-prop (HR / hits) leans, per market. These are informational research signals, not official plays: an efficient market can still misprice individual games, and this is where we surface those and grade them in the open. Like our plays, a lean only posts once that game's lineups are final — so nothing here appears and then vanishes after you've acted on it. Our proven-edge plays live on the Plays hub; see the full model on the Moneyline and NRFI boards.
◆ Not official plays. These are the spots where our model disagrees
most with the market, per book market, shown for transparency and
graded honestly. A market can be efficient overall yet still misprice individual games — this is where we surface those. But the biggest, most obvious leans are often
efficiently priced precisely because they're obvious, so treat them as research signals, not locks — the record under each market shows what's actually held up. Like our plays,
a lean only posts once that game's lineups are final, so nothing you see here can vanish after you act on it. Our
proven-edge plays live on the
Plays hub. 21+.
Team Total
Our leans: 55% · 736 · +1% ROITeam totals are the softest team market — our strong leans (≥1.25 runs) are the ones we post as plays. The rest live here, graded.
+1.5AZ Over 3.5Final 1–4 · AZ @ SDProj 5.0Line 3.5(-113 FD)AZ 1 R✗ Miss
+1.2SD Over 3.5Final 1–4 · AZ @ SDProj 4.7Line 3.5(-156 FD)SD 4 R✓ Hit
+1.2WSH Over 4.5Final 6–3 · HOU @ WSHProj 5.7Line 4.5(-110 DK)WSH 3 R✗ Miss
NRFI / YRFI
Our leans: 49% · 352 · -7% ROIFirst inning is heavily bet and sharp. The ★ strong disagreements (≥8%) have shown a thin, real edge; these are our biggest, graded in the open.
+13.6%YRFIFinal · LAA @ TEXYRFI 56%(-126)Mkt 42%(+124)
+11.4%YRFIFinal · AZ @ SDYRFI 61%(-156)Mkt 50%(-111)
+10.9%YRFIFinal · MIL @ STLYRFI 60%(-148)Mkt 49%(-108)
Run Total
Our leans: 52% · 344 · +0% ROIGame totals are efficiently priced — books nail them. Our strongest over/under disagreements, graded honestly rather than posted.
+2.2Over 7.5Final 1–4 · AZ @ SDProj 9.7Line 7.5(-125)5 R total✗ Miss
-1.2Under 9Final 4–1 · PHI @ CINProj 7.8Line 9(-114)5 R total✓ Hit
+1.1Over 7.5Final 4–6 · NYY @ TBProj 8.6Line 7.5(-105)10 R total✓ Hit
Moneyline
Our leans: 52% · 368 · -3% ROIThe moneyline is the sharpest market of all — don't expect a durable edge. Shown for transparency: where we disagree most with the book.
+15.6%MIA MLFinal 5–6 · SEA @ MIAWin 60%(-149)Mkt 44%(+116)✓ Hit
+14.1%WSH MLFinal 6–3 · HOU @ WSHWin 69%(-228)Mkt 55%(-136)✗ Miss
+11.8%ATH MLFinal 2–6 · ATH @ DETWin 53%(-113)Mkt 41%(+135)✗ Miss
Home Runs
Over 0.5 · season: 11% · 24318 · -21% ROIHitters we make a better home-run bet than the price implies — our P is calibrated (not Poisson-inflated). Rare: HR overs are efficiently priced (see the season record), so this is transparency, not plays.
+7.6%Victor Bericoto1+ HRFinal 9–3 · TOR @ SFP(1+) 17%(+483)Book 10%(+950 CZR)0 HR✗ Miss
+4.5%Jonah Heim1+ HRFinal 2–6 · ATH @ DETP(1+) 16%(+515)Book 12%(+750 BR)0 HR✗ Miss
+3.3%Brice Turang1+ HRFinal 10–2 · MIL @ STLP(1+) 13%(+651)Book 10%(+900 BR)0 HR✗ Miss
Hits
Over 0.5 · season: 58% · 24318 · -4% ROIContact hitters we make more likely for a knock than the price implies. Efficiently priced, so genuine over-edges are uncommon — graded honestly.
+11.0%Tyler Tolbert1+ hitsFinal 16–12 · KC @ NYMP(1+) 55%(-124)Book 44%(+125 MGM)5 H✓ Hit
+6.5%Ali Sánchez1+ hitsFinal 4–6 · NYY @ TBP(1+) 53%(-111)Book 46%(+117 DK)2 H✓ Hit
+4.1%Hunter Feduccia1+ hitsFinal 4–6 · NYY @ TBP(1+) 53%(-112)Book 49%(+105 DK)1 H✓ Hit
RBI
Over 0.5 · season: 29% · 10962 · -9% ROIRun-driving spots we rate above the price. RBI is lumpy and efficiently priced — real over-edges are rare.
+10.5%Victor Bericoto1+ RBIFinal 9–3 · TOR @ SFP(1+) 34%(+192)Book 24%(+321 DK)1 RBI✓ Hit
+7.2%Colby Thomas1+ RBIFinal 2–6 · ATH @ DETP(1+) 33%(+204)Book 26%(+290 MGM)0 RBI✗ Miss
+5.5%Jake McCarthy1+ RBIFinal 4–3 · COL @ LADP(1+) 33%(+207)Book 27%(+269 DK)2 RBI✓ Hit
Runs
Over 0.5 · season: 38% · 10962 · -6% ROIRun-scoring spots we rate above the price. Efficiently priced; rare over-edges, graded in the open.
+7.6%Tyler Tolbert1+ runsFinal 16–12 · KC @ NYMP(1+) 35%(+189)Book 27%(+270 MGM)4 R✓ Hit
+6.2%Victor Bericoto1+ runsFinal 9–3 · TOR @ SFP(1+) 36%(+175)Book 30%(+232 DK)0 R✗ Miss
+5.2%Colby Thomas1+ runsFinal 2–6 · ATH @ DETP(1+) 35%(+182)Book 30%(+230 MGM)0 R✗ Miss
Walks
Over 0.5 · season: 28% · 10962 · -13% ROIPlate-discipline spots we rate above the price. Thin market — over-edges are rare.
+15.3%Jordan Walker1+ walksFinal 10–2 · MIL @ STLP(1+) 43%(+132)Book 28%(+260 FAN)0 BB✗ Miss
+13.1%Iván Herrera1+ walksFinal 10–2 · MIL @ STLP(1+) 46%(+115)Book 33%(+200 FAN)1 BB✓ Hit
+11.3%Randal Grichuk1+ walksFinal 8–1 · BOS @ CWSP(1+) 35%(+190)Book 23%(+330 DK)0 BB✗ Miss
Stolen Bases
Over 0.5 · season: 6% · 10962 · -48% ROISteal spots we rate above the price. A very efficient longshot market — over-edges are rare.
Lined up with the market here — no meaningful disagreement right now.
Informational model-vs-market disagreements, each graded against the line posted when it surfaced — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. Lines move; confirm at the book. 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).