A model, not a take
Every ranking on MatchWiz comes straight from a statistical model — there are no manual picks and no hot takes. The same math scores every hitter and every starting pitcher on the slate the same way, so a star and a backup are judged on identical terms: the matchup in front of them, not their name.
What goes into the score
Every score starts from the matchup in front of the player. For a hitter, that means weighing how he's actually performed against the kind of pitcher he's facing — handedness matters enormously, so a left-handed bat's history against righties isn't treated the same as his history against lefties — set against what that pitcher, and the bullpen behind him, tend to give up. From there the model accounts for how much the hitter is likely to play, the ballpark, the day's weather, and how hot or cold he's been lately, leaning on what's recent over what's stale. Pitcher boards work the same way in reverse — how the starter projects against the specific lineup he's drawing that day. The result is one comparable score for every player on the slate.
Those are the ingredients, and they're no secret — most serious models look at the same kinds of inputs. The edge is in how they're weighted and combined, and that part is our own: it's tuned and re-tuned against real outcomes every week. So rather than publish the recipe, we'd rather prove the model works the only way that actually counts — by grading every call in public, where you can check it.
Projections meet the market
A model number only means something next to a price. So wherever a book posts a line, we show our projection beside it and flag where the two diverge. The largest, best-supported gaps become Plays of the Day — the handful of spots each slate where the model most disagrees with the market. They're a research signal, published with their full graded record, not betting advice.
We grade ourselves, in public
Every projection is graded against the real box-score result, at the line the market actually offered. The score for a game is locked at first pitch — once a game starts, its numbers can never be quietly rewritten to look smarter after the fact. And the entire archive is public: roll back to any past date on any board and read exactly what we said and what happened.
Season track record
As of the current season, MatchWiz's highest-conviction calls — the Plays of the Day, where the model's projection diverges most sharply from the market line — have hit at 64% over 74 graded plays, a +15% return on a flat one-unit stake. That edge concentrates at the top of every board: the highest-ranked spots clear the field by a clear margin, while the full board — every matchup we score, most of them ordinary — sits near the rate you'd expect against the vig. We publish all of it. Each projection is graded at the line the market actually offered, the score for every game is locked at first pitch, and the complete archive rolls back day by day so anyone can audit exactly what we said and what happened. The record is the product — not a marketing number, but the same ledger that tunes the model.
It learns every week
Each week the model's weights re-tune against what really happened, scored on a held-out test split so it can't just memorize the past. It's a continuous learning loop run out in the open: the model gets sharper as the season's graded sample grows, and the record above moves with it.
See it on today's board
The methodology is only as good as the board it produces. Start with today's matchups, check the day's Plays of the Day, or see the team-level model on moneyline & run totals. Every board carries its own graded, roll-back-able record.