MLB moneyline & run totals — Sunday, June 28, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (53%, n=178), but it's beating the book on team totals — 58% at +6% ROI over 285 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
WSHWashington Nationals36%+176fair+166mktModel lean+0.1%
BALBaltimore Orioles64%-176fair-198mkt-0.1%
CINCincinnati Reds48%+107fair+115mktModel lean+3.5%
PITPittsburgh Pirates52%-107fair-135mkt-3.5%
TEXTexas Rangers48%+107fair+110mktModel lean+2.6%
TORToronto Blue Jays52%-107fair-130mkt-2.6%
HOUHouston Astros64%-180fair-120mktModel lean+11.9%
DETDetroit Tigers36%+180fair+101mkt-11.9%
SEASeattle Mariners41%+144fair-102mkt-7.5%
CLECleveland Guardians59%-144fair-115mktModel lean+7.5%
AZArizona Diamondbacks27%+271fair+165mkt-9.3%
TBTampa Bay Rays73%-271fair-198mktModel lean+9.3%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies57%-132fair-157mkt-2.1%
NYMNew York Mets43%+132fair+135mktModel lean+2.1%
KCKansas City Royals38%+161fair+120mkt-5.4%
CWSChicago White Sox62%-161fair-141mktModel lean+5.4%
CHCChicago Cubs33%+202fair+140mkt-6.9%
MILMilwaukee Brewers67%-202fair-166mktModel lean+6.9%
COLColorado Rockies52%-107fair+140mktModel lean+11.5%
MINMinnesota Twins48%+107fair-164mkt-11.5%
MIAMiami Marlins51%-104fair+107mktModel lean+4.4%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals49%+104fair-125mkt-4.4%
ATHAthletics48%+108fair-118mkt-4.2%
LAALos Angeles Angels52%-108fair+102mktModel lean+4.2%
ATLAtlanta Braves60%-148fair-164mktModel lean+0.0%
SFSan Francisco Giants40%+148fair+138mkt-0.0%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers45%+123fair-140mkt-11.0%
SDSan Diego Padres55%-123fair+118mktModel lean+11.0%
NYYNew York Yankees49%+103fair-102mktModel lean+0.8%
BOSBoston Red Sox51%-103fair-115mkt-0.8%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.