MLB — every play style, graded in public
One model scores every hitter and pitcher on the slate, sets our number beside the sportsbook's line, and posts the record whether it hits or misses. Here's every play style we cover — and where the edge actually is.
Most “MLB picks” sites hand you a lock and forget the losers. We do the opposite: every ranking here comes from one statistical model, it's set against the real sportsbook line, and it's graded in the open — the whole track record rolls back day by day.
The model scores a star and a backup on identical terms — the matchup in front of them, not their name. Then we're honest about where that's worth betting. On most markets the book is sharp, so we publish our number as graded transparency — a receipt, not a play. On a few, our detail beats the line: strikeout-prop gaps, team-total disagreements, and an emerging first-inning edge. Those get flagged ★.
Team
Pitching Pitcher props guide →
Hitting Batter props guide →
Tools
MLB model — FAQ
What does MatchWiz do for MLB?
It runs one statistical model over every hitter and starting pitcher on the slate, ranks the matchups, and sets our number beside the sportsbook's line — then grades every call against the real result, in public. No manual picks, no hot takes.
Which MLB bets does the model actually have an edge on?
Two, historically: strikeout props where our projection gaps far from the book's line, and team totals on our strongest run-total disagreements. NRFI has an emerging first-inning-pitcher edge on its strongest leans. Everything else we publish as graded transparency — a sharp number set beside the market — because those markets are priced efficiently.
Are these betting picks?
No. They're a research signal from a model, graded in the open — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. We post the record whether a call hits or misses so you can judge it yourself. 21+, play responsibly.
A research signal from our model vs the market, graded in the open — not betting advice. 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).