MatchWiz

MLB — your daily baseball hub

Every game and every player on the slate, scored by one model and graded in the open. Pick a lane.

Matchups

Live scores and the model's read on every game — win probability, totals, first-inning.

Today's slate

Hitter Boards

Hits, homers, total bases, steals and more — every hitter on the slate, ranked.

Open boards

Pitcher Boards

Strikeouts, outs, earned runs — every starter scored against the lineup he faces.

Open boards

Stats

A page for every hitter and pitcher — form, projections, and our graded record on him.

Player pages

Value

Where our number disagrees most with the sportsbook — informational leans, graded honestly.

Strongest leans

Fantasy

DraftKings projections and a free lineup optimizer. League sync is on the way.

DFS & tools

Most “MLB picks” sites hand you a lock and forget the losers. We do the opposite: every ranking here comes from one statistical model, it's set against the real sportsbook line, and it's graded in the open — the whole track record rolls back day by day.

The model scores a star and a backup on identical terms — the matchup in front of them, not their name. Then we're honest about where that's worth betting. On most markets the book is sharp, so we publish our number as graded transparency — a receipt, not a play. On a few, our detail beats the line: strikeout-prop gaps, team-total disagreements, and an emerging first-inning edge. Those get flagged ★.

Strikeout plays · season
55–36+9%
60% hit · ROI vs the book
Team totals · surfaced
89+14%
64% win · our strongest run-total leans

Team

Pitching Pitcher props guide →

Hitting Batter props guide →

Tools

MLB model — FAQ

What does MatchWiz do for MLB?

It runs one statistical model over every hitter and starting pitcher on the slate, ranks the matchups, and sets our number beside the sportsbook's line — then grades every call against the real result, in public. No manual picks, no hot takes.

Which MLB bets does the model actually have an edge on?

Two: strikeout props where our projection gaps far from the book's line, and team totals on our strongest run-total disagreements. Everything else — moneylines, game totals, NRFI — we publish as graded transparency, a sharp number set beside the market, because those markets are priced efficiently and our forward record on them grades out at a coin flip. We only post what we can back.

Are these betting picks?

No. They're a research signal from a model, graded in the open — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. We post the record whether a call hits or misses so you can judge it yourself. 21+, play responsibly.

A research signal from our model vs the market, graded in the open — not betting advice. 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).