🛡 1u playWon +0.85u
-118
Live hit prob100%
- Gabriel Moreno 1+ HAZ · Hits-295✓
- Alec Burleson 1+ HSTL · Hits-262✓
MLB — your daily baseball hub
Every game and every player on the slate, scored by one model and graded in the open. Pick a lane.
Matchups
The model's read on every game — win probability, run totals, first-inning — plus live scores.
Game predictionsHitter Boards
Hits, homers, total bases, steals and more — every hitter on the slate, ranked.
Open boardsPitcher Boards
Strikeouts, outs, earned runs — every starter scored against the lineup he faces.
Open boardsSchedule
Every game today and through the week — first pitch times, probable starters, and the model's win% per matchup.
This week's slateStandings
Division, wild card with the cutline drawn, league and overall — updated every morning from final scores.
Division racesStats
A page for every hitter and pitcher — form, projections, and our graded record on him.
Player pagesValue
Where our number disagrees most with the sportsbook — informational leans, graded honestly.
Strongest leansFantasy
DraftKings projections and a free lineup optimizer. League sync is on the way.
DFS & toolsWizLays
The model's most-likely stacks for today — a safe, a mid, a longshot, plus the HR 2-Leg. Graded daily.
Today's parlaysMost “MLB picks” sites hand you a lock and forget the losers. We do the opposite: every ranking here comes from one statistical model, it's set against the real sportsbook line, and it's graded in the open — the whole track record rolls back day by day.
The model scores a star and a backup on identical terms — the matchup in front of them, not their name. Then we're honest about where that's worth betting. On most markets the book is sharp, so we publish our number as graded transparency — a receipt, not a play. On a few, our detail beats the line: strikeout-prop gaps, team-total disagreements, and an emerging first-inning edge. Those get flagged ★.
Strikeout plays · season
99–72+4%
58% hit · ROI vs the book
Team totals · surfaced
204+10%
61% win · our strongest run-total leans
WizLays
Today2-0+1.71u
Season26-42-5.69u-8% ROI
🛡 +10021-31-12.53u
⚡ +5004-7+4.67u
🔥 +10001-4+2.16u
The model's most-likely stacks for Saturday, August 22, across a range of payouts — moneylines and confident hitter props. Frozen when posted, graded after the games. The moonshot is just for fun. Not a tip.
🛡 1u playWon +0.86u
-116
Live hit prob100%
- Jake McCarthy 1+ HCOL · Hits-360✓
- Sam Antonacci 1+ HCWS · Hits-220✓
Batted-ball leaders
Nothing final yet on Sunday, August 23, 2026 — the hardest hit and longest home run post as games end.
Team
ScheduleToday's slate and the week ahead — first pitch times, probable pitchers, and the model's win% on every matchup.Open board →Moneyline & Run Totals★ EdgeWin probability + projected game total vs the market. Team totals are our softest, most beatable team market.Open board →NRFI / YRFI (1st inning)GradedWill a run score in the 1st — each starter's first-inning form vs the top of the order, set against the market and graded. Transparency board — no plays.Open board →Strongest LeansGradedOur biggest disagreements with the market per book — moneyline, run total, team total, NRFI — as informational leans, graded honestly. Not official plays.Open board →
Pitching Pitcher props guide →
Earned RunsGradedHow many runs the starter gives up, vs his matchup.Open board →Fantasy PointsGradedProjected DK pitcher points, composed from the arm's boards.Open board →Hits AllowedGradedContact he's likely to allow against this lineup.Open board →Outs RecordedGradedHow deep he goes — projected outs recorded.Open board →Strikeouts★ EdgeOur projected K's vs the book's line — the big gaps are our sharpest prop edge.Open board →Walks AllowedGradedHis control vs their patience.Open board →
Hitting Batter props guide →
DoublesGradedOur projection vs the book, graded.Open board →Fantasy PointsGradedProjected DraftKings hitter points — with salary + value.Open board →H+R+RBIGradedThe combined H+R+RBI number vs the book.Open board →HitsGradedChance a hitter records a knock, matchup-adjusted.Open board →Home RunsGradedWho's most likely to run into one, park and matchup baked in.Open board →RBIsGradedRun-driving spots — lineup slot, the bats behind him, the arm he faces.Open board →RunsGradedWho crosses the plate, top-of-order and on-base driven.Open board →SinglesGradedOur projection vs the book, graded.Open board →Stolen BasesGradedRunner speed × the catcher's arm — steal spots.Open board →Total BasesGradedExtra-base upside vs the posted total-bases line.Open board →TriplesGradedOur projection vs the book, graded.Open board →WalksGradedPlate discipline vs the pitcher's control — free passes.Open board →
Tools
DFS Lineup OptimizerGradedBuild the optimal DraftKings lineup from our projections — stacks, exposure, CSV export.Open board →Plays of the DayGradedThe highest-conviction plays from every board, in one place, graded live.Open board →Player PagesGradedA page for every hitter and pitcher — today's projections across every board, recent form, and our graded record on him.Open board →
MLB model — FAQ
What does MatchWiz do for MLB?
It runs one statistical model over every hitter and starting pitcher on the slate, ranks the matchups, and sets our number beside the sportsbook's line — then grades every call against the real result, in public. No manual picks, no hot takes.
Which MLB bets does the model actually have an edge on?
Two: strikeout props where our projection gaps far from the book's line, and team totals on our strongest run-total disagreements. Everything else — moneylines, game totals, NRFI — we publish as graded transparency, a sharp number set beside the market, because those markets are priced efficiently and our forward record on them grades out at a coin flip. We only post what we can back.
Are these betting picks?
No. They're a research signal from a model, graded in the open — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. We post the record whether a call hits or misses so you can judge it yourself. 21+, play responsibly.
A research signal from our model vs the market, graded in the open — not betting advice. 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).