MatchWiz
Runs · Sunday, June 14, 2026

STL @ MIN Runs matchups · Sunday, June 14, 2026

STL
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
vs
2:10 PM EDT
MIN
Minnesota Twins
MIN
Target FieldElevation 828 ftCenter Field 404 ft

STL STL Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from STL's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).

Hits / BF vs LH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.20943 BF
Season.105162 BF
Last 2 Years.130698 BF
wOBA allowed.313
Hard-Hit %37%

Hits / BF vs RH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.16724 BF
Season.098122 BF
Last 2 Years.119638 BF
wOBA allowed.346
Hard-Hit %43%

Lower hits/BF = the pitcher suppresses hits to that side. wOBA / Hard-Hit % = how hard that side squares him up.

Order · HitterMatchup

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.109

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.09432 PA
Season.096187 PA
Last 2 Years.134863 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 9@ NYM0
Jun 10@ NYM1
Jun 11@ NYM1
Jun 12@ MIN1
Jun 13@ MIN1

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.121

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.16724 PA
Season.098122 PA
Last 2 Years.119638 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.148

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.186167 PA
Season.131774 PA
Last 2 Years.1192392 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.294
Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.347
Hard-Hit % Allowed39%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.667
Plate Appearances3

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.65
Sees starter / bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Projection

Projected Runs0.557

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.147

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.21637 PA
Season.140214 PA
Last 2 Years.134597 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 9@ NYM3
Jun 10@ NYM2
Jun 11@ NYM0
Jun 12@ MIN1
Jun 13@ MIN2

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.121

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.16724 PA
Season.098122 PA
Last 2 Years.119638 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.148

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.186167 PA
Season.131774 PA
Last 2 Years.1192392 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.324
Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.347
Hard-Hit % Allowed39%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.55
Sees starter / bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Projection

Projected Runs0.63

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.111

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.05636 PA
Season.147211 PA
Last 2 Years.107578 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 9@ NYM0
Jun 10@ NYM1
Jun 11@ NYM0
Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 13@ MIN1

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.121

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.16724 PA
Season.098122 PA
Last 2 Years.119638 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.148

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.186167 PA
Season.131774 PA
Last 2 Years.1192392 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.323
Hard-Hit %41%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.347
Hard-Hit % Allowed39%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.45
Sees starter / bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 10-game streak

Projection

Projected Runs0.536

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.134

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.2508 PA
Season.2508 PA
Last 2 Years.14328 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 6vs CIN0
Jun 7vs CIN1
Jun 10@ NYM1
Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 13@ MIN0

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.121

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.16724 PA
Season.098122 PA
Last 2 Years.119638 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.148

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.186167 PA
Season.131774 PA
Last 2 Years.1192392 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.314
Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.347
Hard-Hit % Allowed39%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.000
Plate Appearances2

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.35
Sees starter / bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Projection

Projected Runs0.572

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.144

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.23534 PA
Season.129201 PA
Last 2 Years.117927 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 9@ NYM1
Jun 10@ NYM1
Jun 11@ NYM1
Jun 12@ MIN2
Jun 13@ MIN1

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.137

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.20943 PA
Season.105162 PA
Last 2 Years.130698 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.126

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.118220 PA
Season.135783 PA
Last 2 Years.1302369 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.403
Hard-Hit %40%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.344
Hard-Hit % Allowed40%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.667
Plate Appearances3

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.25
Sees starter / bullpen~3× / ~1.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 13-game streak

Projection

Projected Runs0.591

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 2 Gameshits

Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 13@ MIN2

Their hits in each of the last 2 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.121

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.16724 PA
Season.098122 PA
Last 2 Years.119638 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.148

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.186167 PA
Season.131774 PA
Last 2 Years.1192392 PA

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.347
Hard-Hit % Allowed39%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.1
Sees starter / bullpen~2.5× / ~1.6×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Projection

Projected Runs0.509

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.089

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00010 PA
Season.02441 PA
Last 2 Years.085130 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 6vs CIN2
Jun 7vs CIN1
Jun 10@ NYM0
Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 13@ MIN0

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.121

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.16724 PA
Season.098122 PA
Last 2 Years.119638 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.148

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.186167 PA
Season.131774 PA
Last 2 Years.1192392 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.314
Hard-Hit %30%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.347
Hard-Hit % Allowed39%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps4
Sees starter / bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 7-game streak

Projection

Projected Runs0.447

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 Gameshits

May 25@ MIL0
May 27@ MIL0
May 31vs CHC0
Jun 6vs CIN0
Jun 13@ MIN1

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.121

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.16724 PA
Season.098122 PA
Last 2 Years.119638 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.148

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.186167 PA
Season.131774 PA
Last 2 Years.1192392 PA

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.347
Hard-Hit % Allowed39%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps3.9
Sees starter / bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Projection

Projected Runs0.49

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.116

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.1258 PA
Season.108130 PA
Last 2 Years.121181 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 9@ NYM1
Jun 10@ NYM1
Jun 11@ NYM0
Jun 12@ MIN0
Jun 13@ MIN0

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.137

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.20943 PA
Season.105162 PA
Last 2 Years.130698 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.126

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.118220 PA
Season.135783 PA
Last 2 Years.1302369 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.327
Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.344
Hard-Hit % Allowed40%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps3.8
Sees starter / bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Projection

Projected Runs0.47

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

MIN MIN Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from MIN's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).

Hits / BF vs LH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04522 BF
Season.073178 BF
Last 2 Years.106404 BF
wOBA allowed.289
Hard-Hit %35%

Hits / BF vs RH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.12524 BF
Season.103107 BF
Last 2 Years.098367 BF
wOBA allowed.289
Hard-Hit %39%

Lower hits/BF = the pitcher suppresses hits to that side. wOBA / Hard-Hit % = how hard that side squares him up.

Order · HitterMatchup

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.109

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.12839 PA
Season.082135 PA
Last 2 Years.108380 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 6vs KC1
Jun 7vs KC0
Jun 10@ DET2
Jun 11@ DET0
Jun 13vs STL1

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.112

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.12524 PA
Season.103107 PA
Last 2 Years.098367 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.064188 PA
Season.1111073 PA
Last 2 Years.1233987 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.271
Hard-Hit %29%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.299
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.65
Sees starter / bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Projection

Projected Runs0.501

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.138

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10837 PA
Season.169189 PA
Last 2 Years.175772 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 9@ DET1
Jun 10@ DET1
Jun 11@ DET0
Jun 12vs STL3
Jun 13vs STL1

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.112

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.12524 PA
Season.103107 PA
Last 2 Years.098367 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.064188 PA
Season.1111073 PA
Last 2 Years.1233987 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.342
Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.299
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.55
Sees starter / bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Projection

Projected Runs0.555

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.139

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.20539 PA
Season.123171 PA
Last 2 Years.128532 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 9@ DET1
Jun 10@ DET0
Jun 11@ DET0
Jun 12vs STL2
Jun 13vs STL0

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.093

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04522 PA
Season.073178 PA
Last 2 Years.106404 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.122

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.122147 PA
Season.122988 PA
Last 2 Years.1263128 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.366
Hard-Hit %39%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.306
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.45
Sees starter / bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Projection

Projected Runs0.538

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.089

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00016 PA
Season.069101 PA
Last 2 Years.095590 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 9@ DET0
Jun 10@ DET1
Jun 11@ DET0
Jun 12vs STL2
Jun 13vs STL1

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.112

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.12524 PA
Season.103107 PA
Last 2 Years.098367 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.064188 PA
Season.1111073 PA
Last 2 Years.1233987 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.301
Hard-Hit %30%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.299
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.35
Sees starter / bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 6-game streak

Projection

Projected Runs0.425

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.115

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11444 PA
Season.121173 PA
Last 2 Years.098655 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 9@ DET1
Jun 10@ DET1
Jun 11@ DET0
Jun 12vs STL1
Jun 13vs STL1

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.093

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04522 PA
Season.073178 PA
Last 2 Years.106404 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.122

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.122147 PA
Season.122988 PA
Last 2 Years.1263128 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.315
Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.306
Hard-Hit % Allowed34%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.25
Sees starter / bullpen~2.7× / ~1.6×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Projection

Projected Runs0.464

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.130

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.20020 PA
Season.16730 PA
Last 2 Years.077465 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 6vs KC1
Jun 7vs KC1
Jun 10@ DET0
Jun 11@ DET0
Jun 13vs STL0

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.112

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.12524 PA
Season.103107 PA
Last 2 Years.098367 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.064188 PA
Season.1111073 PA
Last 2 Years.1233987 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.301
Hard-Hit %29%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.299
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.000
Plate Appearances3

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.1
Sees starter / bullpen~2× / ~2.1×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Projection

Projected Runs0.479

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.109

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00012 PA
Season.13936 PA
Last 2 Years.119109 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 7vs KC0
Jun 9@ DET0
Jun 10@ DET0
Jun 11@ DET0
Jun 13vs STL1

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.112

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.12524 PA
Season.103107 PA
Last 2 Years.098367 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.064188 PA
Season.1111073 PA
Last 2 Years.1233987 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.290
Hard-Hit %31%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.299
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps4
Sees starter / bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Projection

Projected Runs0.426

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.115

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11834 PA
Season.109174 PA
Last 2 Years.117315 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 7vs KC0
Jun 9@ DET0
Jun 10@ DET0
Jun 12vs STL1
Jun 13vs STL1

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.112

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.12524 PA
Season.103107 PA
Last 2 Years.098367 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.064188 PA
Season.1111073 PA
Last 2 Years.1233987 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.316
Hard-Hit %31%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.299
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps3.9
Sees starter / bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Projection

Projected Runs0.427

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.124

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.15413 PA
Season.11118 PA
Last 2 Years.149148 PA

Last 5 Gameshits

Jun 5vs KC1
Jun 7vs KC0
Jun 10@ DET1
Jun 11@ DET0
Jun 13vs STL0

Their hits in each of the last 5 games they appeared in — most recent at the bottom.

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.112

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.12524 PA
Season.103107 PA
Last 2 Years.098367 PA

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.095

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.064188 PA
Season.1111073 PA
Last 2 Years.1233987 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.317
Hard-Hit %30%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.299
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Context

Expected Plate Apps3.8
Sees starter / bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Projection

Projected Runs0.433

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.