Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, June 15, 2026)?

Chase Burns (CIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against NYM. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Monday, June 15, 2026: Chase Burns (~6.7 K), Zack Wheeler (~5.7 K), Shota Imanaga (~5.7 K), Dustin May (~5.3 K), J.T. Ginn (~4.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Today

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, June 15, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

6:40 PM ET

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup83 6:45 PM ET

KCaway

WSHhomeTop matchup26 7:10 PM ET

NYMaway

CINhomeTop matchup100 7:45 PM ET

SDaway

STLhomeTop matchup59 8:05 PM ET

COLaway

CHChomeTop matchup70 8:05 PM ET

MINaway

TEXhomeTop matchup55 8:10 PM ET

DETaway

HOUhomeTop matchup42 9:40 PM ET

LAAaway

AZhomeTop matchup41 9:40 PM ET

PITaway

ATHhomeTop matchup55 10:10 PM ET

TBaway

LADhomeTop matchup20

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 18 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.

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#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.7% K/BF

vs LHB30.3%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 14vs WSH7

May 19@ PHI9

May 26@ NYM8

Jun 3vs KC9

Jun 9@ SD7

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)23.3%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)19.6%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)15.4%3.0

4. Jared Young (L)21.5%3.0

5. A.J. Ewing (L)26.7%3.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)21.6%2.1

7. Brett Baty (L)25.4%2.0

8. MJ Melendez (L)28.3%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.4% K/BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB26.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17@ PIT8

May 23vs CLE6

May 29@ LAD4

Jun 4vs SD8

Jun 9@ TOR5

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Liam Hicks (L)12.7%3.0

2. Otto Lopez (R)17.1%3.0

3. Kyle Stowers (L)28.9%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)14.7%3.0

5. Heriberto Hernández (R)24.5%3.0

6. Owen Caissie (L)31.1%2.6

7. Jakob Marsee (L)21.3%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

9. Connor Norby (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18vs MIL2

May 24vs HOU6

May 29@ STL2

Jun 4vs ATH5

Jun 10@ COL7

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willi Castro (R)20.8%3.0

2. Tyler Freeman (R)19.5%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)17.0%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)32.1%3.0

5. Ezequiel Tovar (R)27.7%3.0

6. Cole Carrigg (R)22.0%2.6

7. Kyle Karros (R)21.1%2.0

8. Troy Johnston (L)17.1%2.0

9. Braxton Fulford (R)29.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 15vs KC3

May 21vs PIT7

May 27@ MIL9

Jun 2vs TEX9

Jun 9@ NYM6

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.2%3.0

2. Jackson Merrill (L)22.7%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)20.3%3.0

4. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.0%3.0

5. Gavin Sheets (L)22.0%3.0

6. Samad Taylor (R)23.4%2.7

7. Nick Solak (R)20.9%2.0

8. Jase Bowen (R)22.0%2.0

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB25.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18@ LAA10

May 23@ SD4

May 30vs NYY4

Jun 4@ CHC8

Jun 9vs MIL5

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Spencer Horwitz (L)15.3%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)22.9%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)22.6%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.6%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)18.2%3.0

6. Tyler Callihan (L)23.7%2.4

7. Jake Mangum (L)18.8%2.0

8. Jared Triolo (R)27.4%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18@ COL2

May 24@ LAA7

May 29vs KC3

Jun 3@ STL5

Jun 10@ KC6

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trevor Larnach (L)23.5%3.0

2. Byron Buxton (R)22.8%3.0

3. Kody Clemens (L)21.7%3.0

4. Royce Lewis (R)20.5%3.0

5. Josh Bell (R)23.2%2.5

6. Victor Caratini (R)23.1%2.0

7. Brooks Lee (R)20.0%2.0

8. Tristan Gray (L)26.3%2.0

9. Luke Keaschall (R)18.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

May 29vs MIN6

Jun 4@ HOU4

Jun 10vs LAD4

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Lawrence Butler (L)24.3%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)24.2%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)17.3%3.0

4. Carlos Cortes (L)13.5%3.0

5. Zack Gelof (R)26.3%2.0

6. Jonah Heim (L)20.3%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)27.2%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)17.8%2.0

9. Alika Williams (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.3% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

May 24@ BAL3

May 29@ CWS1

Jun 3@ TB5

Jun 9vs MIN5

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.7%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.2%3.0

3. Christian Walker (R)24.3%3.0

4. Joey Loperfido (L)26.0%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)26.6%3.0

6. Jake Meyers (R)20.6%2.8

7. Brice Matthews (R)26.7%2.0

8. Raynel Delgado (L)22.0%2.0

9. Collin Price (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18vs ATH4

May 23vs TEX6

May 29@ TB5

Jun 3vs COL7

Jun 9vs HOU7

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)17.4%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)22.5%3.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)19.2%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)23.7%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.3%2.9

6. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.3%2.0

7. Jordan Lawlar (R)24.0%2.0

8. LuJames Groover (R)22.0%2.0

9. Tommy Troy (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.8% K/BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19vs SF3

May 24vs COL3

May 30@ SEA3

Jun 4vs LAD3

Jun 10@ MIA2

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.6%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.6%3.0

3. Wade Meckler (L)20.2%3.0

4. Jo Adell (R)23.7%3.0

5. Nolan Schanuel (L)17.8%3.0

6. Denzer Guzman (R)22.0%3.0

7. Nick Madrigal (R)16.3%2.4

8. Donovan Walton (L)20.5%2.0

9. Logan Porter (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17vs AZ5

May 23@ AZ5

May 29vs SF2

Jun 3@ LAA5

Jun 10vs CHC7

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.7%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)17.4%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)22.6%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)26.8%3.0

5. Michael Conforto (L)27.7%2.7

6. Pedro Ramírez (L)22.0%2.0

7. Carson Kelly (R)19.0%2.0

8. Moisés Ballesteros (L)20.5%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.1 BF

Expected batters faced20.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 16vs TEX7

May 23@ CHC6

May 29vs MIL7

Jun 4vs PIT1

Jun 9@ LAA5

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gleyber Torres (R)19.3%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.9%3.0

3. Matt Vierling (R)19.4%2.1

4. Dillon Dingler (R)20.0%2.0

5. Riley Greene (L)26.8%2.0

6. Jahmai Jones (R)25.7%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)30.5%2.0

8. Wenceel Pérez (L)21.2%2.0

9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.7 BF

Expected batters faced18.7

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs TB1

Jun 10vs AZ4

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kyle Schwarber (L)32.2%2.7

2. Trea Turner (R)24.9%2.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)18.9%2.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)17.0%2.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)23.9%2.0

6. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.2%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)19.8%2.0

8. Rafael Marchán (L)19.3%2.0

9. Derek Hill (R)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)29.2%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)15.4%3.0

3. Dylan Crews (R)23.3%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)20.3%3.0

5. Keibert Ruiz (L)14.9%2.8

6. Daylen Lile (L)17.0%2.0

7. Nasim Nuñez (L)22.9%2.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)17.0%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.1 BF

Expected batters faced19.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3vs MIA5

Jun 9@ SF4

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)22.1%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)15.2%2.1

3. Jac Caglianone (L)24.6%2.0

4. Maikel Garcia (R)18.2%2.0

5. Michael Massey (L)23.0%2.0

6. Salvador Perez (R)19.5%2.0

7. Kameron Misner (L)22.6%2.0

8. Lane Thomas (R)23.2%2.0

9. Isaac Collins (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB18.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 29vs BOS1

May 4@ TB2

May 26vs COL4

Jun 2@ AZ1

Jun 9@ PIT5

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)16.3%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)23.9%3.0

3. Cedric Mullins (L)18.6%3.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)18.6%2.9

5. Chandler Simpson (L)17.1%2.0

6. Richie Palacios (L)22.6%2.0

7. Ben Williamson (R)21.9%2.0

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)23.3%2.0

9. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.2% K/BF

vs LHB17.4%

vs RHB15.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 16vs MIA4

May 22@ NYY1

May 29vs LAA5

Jun 3vs DET1

Jun 9vs BOS2

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.2%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)21.6%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)17.1%3.0

4. Mookie Betts (R)15.6%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)21.6%3.0

6. Kyle Tucker (L)21.2%2.8

7. Ryan Ward (L)24.9%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)24.5%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.1 BF

Expected batters faced14.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 19@ CHC2

May 22@ MIA0

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Blake Dunn (R)22.2%2.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)21.1%2.0

3. Sal Stewart (R)21.3%2.0

4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.4%2.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)26.9%2.0

6. Noelvi Marte (R)20.2%1.1

7. Matt McLain (R)25.7%1.0

8. Jose Trevino (R)18.5%1.0

9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026

Chase Burns (CIN) is the top strikeout start on the Monday, June 15, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K, with Zack Wheeler (PHI) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Chase Burns

Chase Burns (CIN) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against NYM. He's missing bats at a 29% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and NYM has been around league average, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Zack Wheeler (PHI) (83) — about 5.7 K vs MIA: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) (70) — about 5.7 K vs COL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Dustin May (STL) (59) — about 5.3 K vs SD: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) (55) — about 4.9 K vs PIT: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (55) — about 5.3 K vs MIN: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

COL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Shota Imanaga is the arm to exploit it (70).
PHI is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Ryan Gusto is the arm to exploit it (33).
HOU is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Troy Melton is the arm to exploit it (42).
CHC is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Michael Lorenzen is the arm to exploit it (39).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, June 15, 2026)?: Chase Burns (CIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against NYM. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Monday, June 15, 2026: Chase Burns (~6.7 K), Zack Wheeler (~5.7 K), Shota Imanaga (~5.7 K), Dustin May (~5.3 K), J.T. Ginn (~4.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.