MatchWiz
Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchupsThursday, June 11, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, June 11, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Plays of the Day PRO

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — starts where our projection diverges 1.25+ K from the book's line, the segment where our backtested edge concentrates. Overs and Unders alike, ranked by the gap (Δ).

Δ1.3Hunter DobbinsSTL vs NYMwe project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.5-105

Research signal — in backtesting our edge concentrated in the largest of these gaps, not across every start. Display only, not betting advice.

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.3% K/BF

vs LHB23.8%
vs RHB25.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)21.3%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.5%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)17.2%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)22.1%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)21.7%2.9
6. Leody Taveras (L)20.7%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)23.2%2.0
8. Coby Mayo (R)29.9%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel+116-154
BRBetRivers+115-155
BOVBovada+120-160

We project 5.6 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%
vs RHB25.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Edouard Julien (L)25.0%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)24.3%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)18.7%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)24.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)19.7%2.8
6. Cole Carrigg (L)22.0%2.0
7. Sterlin Thompson (L)22.0%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)25.2%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel-112-118
DKDraftKings-106-120
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BRBetRivers-118-113
BOVBovada-110-120

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.3%3.0
2. Gleyber Torres (R)20.8%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)25.8%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)19.8%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)27.0%3.0
6. Colt Keith (L)21.2%2.5
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)28.9%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)20.0%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel-132+100
DKDraftKings-144+113
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BRBetRivers-150+112
BOVBovada-130+100

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB19.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.7 BF

Expected batters faced24.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)22.1%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)26.9%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)21.1%3.0
4. Marcell Ozuna (R)24.5%3.0
5. Spencer Horwitz (L)20.8%3.0
6. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.0%3.0
7. Jake Mangum (R)19.6%2.7
8. Rafael Flores Jr. (R)27.1%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel-144+108
FANFanatics-150+115
DKDraftKings-153+120
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BRBetRivers-139+105
BOVBovada-145+110

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%
vs RHB24.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)21.9%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)20.1%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)15.8%3.0
4. Jared Young (L)22.4%2.5
5. A.J. Ewing (L)26.5%2.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)20.5%2.0
7. Brett Baty (L)25.8%2.0
8. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.5%2.0
9. MJ Melendez (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel-106-125
FANFanatics-105-125
DKDraftKings-107-119
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BRBetRivers-121-110
BOVBovada-105-125

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.3%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)18.4%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)18.6%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)27.1%2.3
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)20.4%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)20.6%2.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)26.0%2.0
8. Nolan Gorman (L)32.4%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel+120-148
DKDraftKings+112-144
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BRBetRivers+120-162
BOVBovada+115-150

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)17.6%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.9%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)14.6%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)20.7%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)28.9%3.0
6. Dominic Canzone (L)19.7%2.2
7. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)21.8%2.0
8. Jhonny Pereda (R)18.5%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel-112-108
FANFanatics-115-115
DKDraftKings-115-111
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BRBetRivers-117-114
BOVBovada-115-115

We project 4.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%
vs RHB18.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)21.3%3.0
2. Corey Seager (L)22.6%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)20.8%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.8%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.8%3.0
6. Jake Burger (R)24.8%3.0
7. Evan Carter (L)22.2%2.3
8. Elias Díaz (R)22.5%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel-104-118
DKDraftKings-112-113
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BRBetRivers-121-110
BOVBovada-105-125

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.8%
vs RHB19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)22.0%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)22.1%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.3%3.0
4. Jac Caglianone (L)26.0%3.0
5. Lane Thomas (R)23.8%2.3
6. Michael Massey (L)22.0%2.0
7. Kameron Misner (L)31.0%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)18.1%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel-138+104
FANFanatics-140+105
DKDraftKings-140+110
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BRBetRivers-159+120
BOVBovada-135+105

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%
vs RHB19.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.4%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)19.8%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)16.9%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)16.3%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)22.5%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)20.9%2.4
7. Ryan Ward (L)24.3%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)24.2%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel+122-150
DKDraftKings+124-159
BRBetRivers+114-152
BOVBovada+120-160

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.6% K/BF

vs LHB17.1%
vs RHB20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)21.1%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)26.3%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)22.4%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)23.3%3.0
5. Brooks Lee (L)18.1%2.7
6. Royce Lewis (R)23.6%2.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)18.6%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)24.8%2.0
9. Austin Martin (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel-132+108
FANFanatics-140+105
DKDraftKings-144+113
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BRBetRivers-134+100
BOVBovada-145+110

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.9% K/BF

vs LHB16.4%
vs RHB19.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)12.9%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)18.2%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)28.6%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)14.8%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)15.3%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)32.1%3.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)19.8%2.6
8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel+118-158
FANFanatics+120-160
DKDraftKings+117-150
BRBetRivers+108-143
BOVBovada+120-160

We project 4.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%
vs RHB17.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.9%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)17.3%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)23.1%2.9
4. Ian Happ (L)26.1%2.0
5. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.9%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)10.1%2.0
7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)21.4%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)18.3%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel-110-110
FANFanatics-105-125
DKDraftKings-103-123
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BRBetRivers-104-129
BOVBovada-115-115

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.6%
vs RHB19.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.9 BF

Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)19.1%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)20.8%2.9
3. Miguel Vargas (R)16.5%2.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)24.0%2.0
5. Everson Pereira (R)26.4%2.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R)22.0%2.0
7. Edgar Quero (R)21.1%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)16.0%2.0
9. Sam Antonacci (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel+118-158
BRBetRivers+114-152
DKDraftKings+119-152
BOVBovada+120-160
MGMBetMGM+110-150

We project 3.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.0% K/BF

vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB16.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.2%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)20.0%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)21.8%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)13.4%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)27.8%2.7
6. Jorge Mateo (R)25.0%2.0
7. Eli White (R)20.7%2.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)22.3%2.0
9. Sandy León (R)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel-144+118
FANFanatics-150+115
BRBetRivers-152+114
DKDraftKings-151+118
BOVBovada-150+115
MGMBetMGM-155+115

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%
vs RHB16.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.3 BF

Expected batters faced18.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)17.5%2.3
2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.7%2.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)18.8%2.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)22.0%2.0
5. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.4%2.0
6. LuJames Groover (R)22.0%2.0
7. Tommy Troy (R)22.1%2.0
8. Aramis Garcia (R)24.6%2.0
9. Jorge Barrosa (L)27.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
FDFanDuel-120-102
DKDraftKings-151+118
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BRBetRivers-118-113
BOVBovada-125-105

We project 3.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.