Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?

Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K against CIN. A 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Nolan McLean (~5.9 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.6 K), Peter Lambert (~5.6 K), Shane McClanahan (~5.1 K), Gavin Williams (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Today

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

12:40 PM ET

NYMaway

CINhomeTop matchup100 1:05 PM ET

KCaway

WSHhomeTop matchup30 1:05 PM ET

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup73 2:10 PM ET

DETaway

HOUhomeTop matchup90 2:15 PM ET

SDaway

STLhomeTop matchup41 3:10 PM ET

TBaway

LADhomeTop matchup80 3:40 PM ET

LAAaway

AZhomeTop matchup47 6:45 PM ET

TORaway

BOShomeTop matchup54 7:05 PM ET

CWSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup65 7:15 PM ET

SFaway

ATLhomeTop matchup48 7:40 PM ET

CLEaway

MILhomeTop matchup80 8:05 PM ET

COLaway

CHChomeTop matchup60 9:40 PM ET

PITaway

ATHhomeTop matchup93 9:40 PM ET

BALaway

SEAhomeTop matchup70

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 26 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.

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#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.1% K/BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ WSH5

May 25vs CIN6

May 31vs MIA2

Jun 6@ SD5

Jun 12vs ATL6

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Blake Dunn (R)22.2%3.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)20.7%3.0

3. Sal Stewart (R)21.1%3.0

4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)21.9%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)27.3%2.9

6. Spencer Steer (R)23.1%2.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.8%2.0

8. Matt McLain (R)25.0%2.0

9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.7% K/BF

vs LHB28.2%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 21@ STL9

May 26vs CHC5

May 31vs MIN11

Jun 6@ ATL5

Jun 12vs MIA4

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)23.7%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)21.3%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)17.0%3.0

4. Jacob Wilson (R)15.5%3.0

5. Carlos Cortes (L)13.1%3.0

6. Zack Gelof (R)26.2%3.0

7. Lawrence Butler (L)24.2%2.4

8. Henry Bolte (R)23.3%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)17.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17vs TEX6

May 24@ CHC5

May 30vs MIL3

Jun 5vs ATH4

Jun 10@ LAA6

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.6%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)20.1%3.0

3. Kerry Carpenter (L)26.3%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)26.6%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)30.4%3.0

6. Wenceel Pérez (L)21.5%2.4

7. Zach McKinstry (L)19.1%2.0

8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)22.7%2.0

9. James Outman (L)31.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18vs BAL6

May 25@ BAL3

May 31vs LAA3

Jun 6@ MIA6

Jun 12@ LAA7

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.3%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)21.5%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)21.9%3.0

4. Mookie Betts (R)17.3%2.9

5. Max Muncy (L)23.2%2.0

6. Kyle Tucker (L)21.0%2.0

7. Ryan Ward (L)24.5%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)24.3%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (R)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17vs CIN7

May 22@ PHI11

May 27vs WSH4

Jun 3@ NYY6

Jun 8vs NYY5

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)27.0%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)21.0%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)23.3%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)16.3%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)26.0%3.0

6. Andrew Vaughn (R)17.6%3.0

7. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.1%2.2

8. Cooper Pratt (R)22.0%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 22vs MIL7

Apr 28@ ATL3

May 16vs TOR4

May 21vs CLE4

May 27vs LAA6

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.2%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.4%3.0

3. Christian Walker (R)24.0%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)18.6%2.7

5. Jose Altuve (R)23.0%2.0

6. Yainer Diaz (R)17.5%2.0

7. Cam Smith (R)26.1%2.0

8. Brice Matthews (R)26.9%2.0

9. Raynel Delgado (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.9% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.7 BF

Expected batters faced24.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 21vs ATL3

May 26@ TOR4

Jun 1@ WSH5

Jun 7vs TB7

Jun 12@ PIT7

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Marsh (L)23.9%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)31.8%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.1%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)17.0%3.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)20.0%3.0

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)23.5%3.0

7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.7

8. Justin Crawford (L)23.1%2.0

9. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ TB6

May 25vs TB3

May 31vs TOR4

Jun 6@ TOR3

Jun 11vs SEA5

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)21.8%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)28.0%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.6%3.0

4. Dominic Canzone (L)18.3%3.0

5. Rob Refsnyder (R)23.5%3.0

6. Cole Young (L)18.3%2.2

7. Victor Robles (R)16.9%2.0

8. Colt Emerson (L)24.9%2.0

9. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17vs SD6

May 23@ KC3

May 29vs AZ4

Jun 3vs NYM5

Jun 10@ BAL10

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)21.6%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.4%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)18.1%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)21.8%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)21.9%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)20.0%2.8

7. Colton Cowser (L)24.2%2.0

8. Blaze Alexander (R)21.6%2.0

9. Jackson Holliday (L)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 19@ SEA5

May 25vs MIN5

May 30vs DET3

Jun 5@ PHI4

Jun 12vs LAD7

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ben Rice (L)25.3%3.0

2. Cody Bellinger (L)15.9%3.0

3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)16.4%3.0

4. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.1%3.0

5. Spencer Jones (L)22.0%2.7

6. José Caballero (R)26.8%2.0

7. Ryan McMahon (L)27.2%2.0

8. J.C. Escarra (L)19.5%2.0

9. Anthony Volpe (R)19.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 16@ NYM6

May 21vs TOR7

May 29@ ATH3

Jun 4vs CLE7

Jun 10@ CLE7

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)22.1%3.0

2. Miguel Vargas (R)16.4%3.0

3. Andrew Benintendi (L)28.0%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)24.6%3.0

5. Braden Montgomery (R)22.0%2.4

6. Chase Meidroth (R)19.6%2.0

7. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)21.7%2.0

9. Drew Romo (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 13vs SF8

May 20@ SD4

May 27vs COL7

Jun 3@ AZ6

Jun 10@ PIT6

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)15.4%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)23.6%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)20.0%3.0

4. Ryan Vilade (R)22.0%3.0

5. Ben Williamson (R)20.6%3.0

6. Austin Slater (R)24.5%2.6

7. Cedric Mullins (L)21.6%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)16.7%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12@ ATH2

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.2%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)19.0%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)23.8%3.0

4. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.5%2.8

5. Ian Happ (R)27.7%2.0

6. Nico Hoerner (R)14.2%2.0

7. Matt Shaw (R)20.4%2.0

8. Miguel Amaya (R)20.3%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18@ CHC5

May 24vs LAD7

May 30@ HOU4

Jun 5@ COL2

Jun 10@ ATH3

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Travis Bazzana (L)18.2%3.0

2. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.0%3.0

3. Rhys Hoskins (R)24.8%3.0

4. David Fry (R)23.5%2.9

5. Kyle Manzardo (L)27.0%2.0

6. Stuart Fairchild (R)25.1%2.0

7. Steven Kwan (L)12.1%2.0

8. Gabriel Arias (R)29.3%2.0

9. Austin Hedges (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

May 1vs HOU3

May 7vs TB1

Jun 10@ TB4

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)21.6%3.0

2. Ernie Clement (R)16.3%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.0%3.0

4. Alejandro Kirk (R)20.6%3.0

5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)22.5%2.6

6. Nathan Lukes (L)23.1%2.0

7. Davis Schneider (R)26.5%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.4%2.0

9. Myles Straw (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB17.8%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 18@ PHI3

May 25@ NYM7

May 31vs ATL4

Jun 6@ STL3

Jun 12vs AZ5

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)22.7%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)17.2%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)19.1%3.0

4. Jared Young (L)23.7%3.0

5. A.J. Ewing (L)25.5%3.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)20.7%2.7

7. Brett Baty (L)24.7%2.0

8. MJ Melendez (L)23.9%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 23@ WSH7

Apr 29vs DET4

May 4@ SEA2

May 13vs CHC4

May 18@ MIA4

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Matt Chapman (R)21.0%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)8.0%3.0

3. Bryce Eldridge (L)20.4%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)27.1%3.0

5. Casey Schmitt (R)21.9%2.6

6. Willy Adames (R)24.7%2.0

7. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.5%2.0

8. Daniel Susac (R)23.3%2.0

9. Drew Gilbert (L)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB18.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 21vs COL4

May 26@ SF6

Jun 1vs LAD3

Jun 6vs WSH5

Jun 12@ CIN3

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)25.9%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)26.1%3.0

3. Wade Meckler (L)22.9%3.0

4. Jo Adell (R)20.6%3.0

5. Nolan Schanuel (L)20.8%3.0

6. Denzer Guzman (R)23.3%2.6

7. Logan O'Hoppe (R)23.6%2.0

8. Donovan Walton (L)20.0%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 16vs KC2

May 23@ CIN8

May 30vs CHC4

Jun 5vs CIN1

Jun 12@ MIN5

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)19.8%3.0

2. Jackson Merrill (L)22.2%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)20.8%3.0

4. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.0%3.0

5. Gavin Sheets (L)22.1%2.8

6. Samad Taylor (R)23.1%2.0

7. Ty France (R)23.3%2.0

8. Will Wagner (L)19.8%2.0

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.4 BF

Expected batters faced20.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 6vs LAD2

Apr 12vs MIN3

Apr 18@ AZ1

Apr 24vs CLE0

Jun 10vs PHI4

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Masataka Yoshida (L)18.0%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.2%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.9%2.4

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.6%2.0

5. Jarren Duran (L)27.7%2.0

6. Caleb Durbin (R)15.8%2.0

7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)15.8%2.0

8. Marcelo Mayer (L)19.7%2.0

9. Connor Wong (R)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.6% K/BF

vs LHB17.5%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 3vs CLE3

May 9@ BAL6

May 15vs SF2

May 20@ LAA2

May 25vs SEA2

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Spencer Horwitz (L)17.3%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)24.3%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)22.3%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)22.1%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)18.0%3.0

6. Endy Rodríguez (L)22.1%2.0

7. Tyler Callihan (L)23.9%2.0

8. Jake Mangum (L)18.6%2.0

9. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.0% K/BF

vs LHB16.2%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 15vs BAL3

May 20vs NYM3

May 31vs SD5

Jun 6@ AZ4

Jun 12vs SEA0

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Lane Thomas (R)22.6%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.3%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)26.6%2.9

4. Maikel Garcia (R)19.0%2.0

5. Starling Marte (R)24.6%2.0

6. Salvador Perez (R)20.6%2.0

7. Nick Loftin (R)17.7%2.0

8. Tyler Tolbert (R)24.2%2.0

9. Kameron Misner (L)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.6% K/BF

vs LHB16.1%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.7 BF

Expected batters faced19.7

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

May 5vs CWS0

Jun 12vs TB4

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)18.4%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)15.2%2.7

3. Corbin Carroll (L)19.8%2.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)19.7%2.0

5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)18.2%2.0

6. Nolan Arenado (R)17.2%2.0

7. Jordan Lawlar (R)22.5%2.0

8. Pavin Smith (L)22.0%2.0

9. Tommy Troy (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.1 BF

Expected batters faced18.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 7@ TB3

Apr 13@ PHI3

Apr 19vs NYM3

Jun 12@ SF5

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)20.3%2.1

2. Willi Castro (L)22.1%2.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)17.7%2.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)27.4%2.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)18.4%2.0

6. Cole Carrigg (L)22.0%2.0

7. Brett Sullivan (L)21.4%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.3%2.0

9. Edouard Julien (L)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.1% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 13@ BOS4

May 18vs CIN3

May 24vs CLE3

May 31@ LAD3

Jun 6vs CWS4

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)14.8%3.0

2. Otto Lopez (R)16.7%3.0

3. Liam Hicks (L)12.5%3.0

4. Heriberto Hernández (R)25.4%3.0

5. Javier Sanoja (R)14.5%2.6

6. Leo Jiménez (R)21.4%2.0

7. Esteury Ruiz (R)24.5%2.0

8. Jakob Marsee (L)22.0%2.0

9. Connor Norby (R)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.2 BF

Expected batters faced17.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 4vs MIL4

Jun 1@ CIN5

Jun 6@ MIN3

Jun 12vs HOU0

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.1%2.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.3%2.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)21.2%2.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)19.8%2.0

5. Dylan Crews (R)22.6%2.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)17.5%2.0

7. Jacob Young (R)22.6%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)21.1%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)24.1%1.2

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Nolan McLean (NYM) is the top strikeout start on the Wednesday, June 17, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K, with Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Nolan McLean

Nolan McLean (NYM) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K against CIN. He's missing bats at a 25% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and CIN has been whiff-prone, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) (93) — about 5.6 K vs ATH: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Peter Lambert (HOU) (90) — about 5.6 K vs DET: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Shane McClanahan (TB) (80) — about 5.1 K vs LAD: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Gavin Williams (CLE) (80) — about 5.4 K vs MIL: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Casey Mize (DET) (75) — about 5.0 K vs HOU: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

DET is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Peter Lambert is the arm to exploit it (90).
LAA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Eduardo Rodriguez is the arm to exploit it (47).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Nolan McLean is the arm to exploit it (100).
MIL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Gavin Williams is the arm to exploit it (80).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, June 17, 2026)?: Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.9 K against CIN. A 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, June 17, 2026: Nolan McLean (~5.9 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.6 K), Peter Lambert (~5.6 K), Shane McClanahan (~5.1 K), Gavin Williams (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.