Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, March 29, 2026
Top hits spot: Michael Busch
Michael Busch (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jake Irvin. The lefty is hitting .500 H/PA against righties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Jake Irvin has been thin against righties lately — — hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .286 in 14 career PA against Jake Irvin. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (97) vs RHP Dustin May: a strong bat at .255 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (89) vs RHP Max Meyer: a strong bat at .260 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Owen Caissie (MIA) (87) vs LHP Jose Quintana: a strong bat at .269 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Iván Herrera (STL) (85) vs LHP Steven Matz: a solid bat at .245 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (83) vs RHP Shane Baz: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (82) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a solid bat at .242 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Masyn Winn (STL) (81) vs LHP Steven Matz: a strong bat at .256 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Max Meyer has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Hunter Goodman (COL), Ezequiel Tovar (COL), and Jake McCarthy (COL).
- LHP Steven Matz has been vulnerable to lefties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Iván Herrera (STL), Masyn Winn (STL), and JJ Wetherholt (STL).
Platoon edges to target
- Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
- Masyn Winn (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, 1.000 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .429 against righties this year.
- Jake Burger (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .750 against lefties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .286 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Cold but due to bounce back: Jacob Wilson (ATH), Francisco Lindor (NYM), Taylor Ward (BAL), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Michael Busch finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.