Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, March 30, 2026
Top hits spot: Michael Busch
Michael Busch (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The lefty is hitting .364 H/PA against righties this year — and .364 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been thin against righties lately — — hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Ryan Johnson, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brice Turang (MIL) (93) vs RHP Nick Martinez: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (87) vs RHP Nick Martinez: an excellent bat at .291 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (86) vs RHP Bryce Elder: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (84) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .255 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (84) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a strong bat at .259 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (83) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (82) vs RHP Chase Burns: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Ryan Johnson has been getting tattooed by righties — .297 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Busch (CHC), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), and Alex Bregman (CHC).
- RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shea Langeliers (ATH), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Tyler Soderstrom (ATH).
- RHP Taijuan Walker has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brady House (WSH), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and James Wood (WSH).
- RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Rafael Devers (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Willy Adames (SF).
Platoon edges to target
- Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .364 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .625 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .455 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Cold but due to bounce back: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Trea Turner (PHI), Teoscar Hernández (LAD), Jakob Marsee (MIA), and Ryan Ritter (COL).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Michael Busch finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.