Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, April 2, 2026
Top hits spot: Jose Fernandez
Jose Fernandez (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Reynaldo López. The righty is hitting .750 H/PA against righties this year — and .750 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Reynaldo López has been tough on righties lately — .091 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Reynaldo López. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Maikel Garcia (KC) (99) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a solid bat at .238 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (98) vs LHP David Peterson: a solid bat at .245 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (98) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a solid bat at .248 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (92) vs LHP Robbie Ray: a league-average bat at .219 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286), hot bat.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (92) vs LHP David Peterson: a solid bat at .248 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263).
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) (91) vs LHP Robbie Ray: a league-average bat at .221 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.214), due to bounce back.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (91) vs LHP David Peterson: a strong bat at .257 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
LHP Cole Ragans has been vulnerable to lefties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Wallner (MIN), Kody Clemens (MIN), and James Outman (MIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Heliot Ramos (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year.
- Francisco Lindor (NYM) — righty bat vs LHP, .100 against lefties this year.
- Willy Adames (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .143 against lefties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.
- Mike Yastrzemski (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Juan Soto (NYM). Cold but due to bounce back: Francisco Lindor (NYM), Mike Yastrzemski (ATL), Ketel Marte (AZ), James Outman (MIN), and Byron Buxton (MIN).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jose Fernandez finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.