Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, April 3, 2026
Top hits spot: Xavier Edwards
Xavier Edwards (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Will Warren. The lefty is hitting .389 H/PA against righties this year — and .389 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Will Warren has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .333 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Will Warren too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Troy Johnston (COL) (99) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .265 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hitter's park.
- Daylen Lile (WSH) (96) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: an excellent bat at .287 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364), hot bat.
- Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) (90) vs RHP Eury Pérez: an elite bat at .322 into an arm tough on the same side (.083), hot bat.
- Nathan Church (STL) (89) vs LHP Framber Valdez: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.600), due to bounce back.
- Edmundo Sosa (PHI) (88) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .246 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286), hitter's park.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (87) vs RHP Cristian Javier: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (87) vs RHP Sonny Gray: a strong bat at .254 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.385).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Framber Valdez has been vulnerable to lefties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Church (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
- RHP Sonny Gray has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Ramón Laureano (SD), and Jackson Merrill (SD).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Troy Johnston (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL).
- RHP Will Warren has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Liam Hicks (MIA), and Jakob Marsee (MIA).
Platoon edges to target
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .389 against righties this year.
- Troy Johnston (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
- Daylen Lile (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .412 against righties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .381 against righties this year.
- Nico Hoerner (CHC) — righty bat vs LHP, .286 against lefties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Troy Johnston (COL) at 99.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Xavier Edwards (MIA), Daylen Lile (WSH), Giancarlo Stanton (NYY), Nico Hoerner (CHC), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Pete Alonso (BAL). Cold but due to bounce back: Nathan Church (STL), Willy Adames (SF), Mike Trout (LAA), Tyrone Taylor (NYM), and Jordan Walker (STL).
How it played out
3 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Xavier Edwards finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.