Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, April 9, 2026
Top hits spot: Colt Keith
Colt Keith (DET) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mick Abel. The lefty is hitting .342 H/PA against righties this year — and .342 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Mick Abel has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .381 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Mick Abel, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Maikel Garcia (KC) (90) vs LHP Anthony Kay: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm tough on the same side (.194).
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (88) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: an elite bat at .311 into an arm tough on the same side (.125).
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) (85) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: a strong bat at .259 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.276), due to bounce back.
- Mark Vientos (NYM) (75) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm tough on the same side (.172), due to bounce back.
- Troy Johnston (COL) (75) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm tough on the same side (.208).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (74) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a strong bat at .259 into an arm tough on the same side (.194).
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (71) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a strong bat at .265 into an arm tough on the same side (.135).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
RHP Mick Abel has been vulnerable to righties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Colt Keith (DET), Riley Greene (DET), and Kerry Carpenter (DET).
Platoon edges to target
- Colt Keith (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .342 against righties this year.
- Maikel Garcia (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .429 against lefties this year.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .433 against righties this year.
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .300 against lefties this year.
- Mark Vientos (NYM) — righty bat vs LHP, .625 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jeff McNeil (ATH), Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Max Muncy (ATH), Matt Wallner (MIN), and Francisco Alvarez (NYM). Cold but due to bounce back: Jacob Wilson (ATH), Mark Vientos (NYM), Marcus Semien (NYM), Jackson Merrill (SD), and Salvador Perez (KC).
How it played out
5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Colt Keith finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.