Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, April 10, 2026
Top hits spot: Ildemaro Vargas
Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jesús Luzardo. The righty is hitting .500 H/PA against lefties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Jesús Luzardo has been tough on lefties lately — .205 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Jesús Luzardo, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Taylor Ward (BAL) (92) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (92) vs RHP Luis Gil: an excellent bat at .294 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (89) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.357).
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (85) vs RHP Keider Montero: an elite bat at .306 into an arm tough on the same side (.111).
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (85) vs RHP Jake Irvin: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (85) vs RHP Jake Irvin: a solid bat at .245 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), due to bounce back.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (83) vs RHP Dustin May: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.417).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Dustin May has been getting tattooed by righties — .291 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Jarren Duran (BOS), and Caleb Durbin (BOS).
- RHP Shane Baz has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Matt Chapman (SF), and Willy Adames (SF).
- RHP Chris Paddack has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gleyber Torres (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Kevin McGonigle (DET).
- LHP Patrick Corbin has been vulnerable to lefties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Byron Buxton (MIN), Austin Martin (MIN), and Luke Keaschall (MIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .371 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .400 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .355 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Chandler Simpson (TB), Christian Walker (HOU), William Contreras (MIL), Jordan Walker (STL), and Matt Chapman (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Brice Turang (MIL), TJ Rumfield (COL), Teoscar Hernández (LAD), Caleb Durbin (BOS), and James McCann (AZ).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Ildemaro Vargas finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.