Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, April 11, 2026
Top hits spot: Edouard Julien
Edouard Julien (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Germán Márquez. The lefty is hitting .290 H/PA against righties this year — and .290 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Germán Márquez has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .381 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Germán Márquez too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Christian Walker (HOU) (94) vs RHP Luis Castillo: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.368).
- Jordan Walker (STL) (90) vs LHP Ranger Suarez: an excellent bat at .278 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.323), hot bat.
- Brandon Nimmo (TEX) (88) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a solid bat at .248 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.281).
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (87) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an excellent bat at .295 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.355).
- Colt Keith (DET) (85) vs RHP Janson Junk: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400).
- Ezequiel Tovar (COL) (84) vs RHP Germán Márquez: a solid bat at .248 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (84) vs RHP Casey Mize: an elite bat at .303 into an arm tough on the same side (.172).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .290 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Colt Keith (DET), Wenceel Pérez (DET), and Kevin McGonigle (DET).
- RHP Germán Márquez has been vulnerable to righties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Edouard Julien (COL), Ezequiel Tovar (COL), and Mickey Moniak (COL).
- RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Roman Anthony (BOS), and Jarren Duran (BOS).
- RHP Taijuan Walker has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jose Fernandez (AZ), Ketel Marte (AZ), and Corbin Carroll (AZ).
Platoon edges to target
- Edouard Julien (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
- Jordan Walker (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .438 against lefties this year.
- Brandon Nimmo (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .262 against righties this year.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .375 against righties this year.
- Colt Keith (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .348 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Edouard Julien (COL), Jordan Walker (STL), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Matt Chapman (SF), William Contreras (MIL), and James Wood (WSH). Cold but due to bounce back: Mickey Moniak (COL), Myles Straw (TOR), Roman Anthony (BOS), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Brady House (WSH).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Edouard Julien finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.