Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, April 15, 2026
Top hits spot: Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. The lefty is hitting .308 H/PA against lefties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Eduardo Rodriguez has been tough on lefties lately — .167 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 5 career PA against Eduardo Rodriguez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nico Hoerner (CHC) (99) vs LHP Jesús Luzardo: a strong bat at .265 into an arm tough on the same side (.175).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (96) vs RHP Bryce Elder: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400).
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (95) vs RHP Sean Burke: an excellent bat at .294 into an arm tough on the same side (.059), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (95) vs LHP Jose Quintana: an excellent bat at .290 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Adrian Del Castillo (AZ) (94) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .259 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.269), hot bat.
- Daulton Varsho (TOR) (93) vs RHP Chad Patrick: a solid bat at .237 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400), hot bat.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (93) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .268 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Dustin May has been getting tattooed by righties — .297 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Steven Kwan (CLE), Angel Martínez (CLE), and Chase DeLauter (CLE).
- RHP Chad Patrick has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Daulton Varsho (TOR), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), and Andrés Giménez (TOR).
- RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Connor Norby (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
- LHP Mason Montgomery has been vulnerable to lefties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Curtis Mead (WSH), Daylen Lile (WSH), and Brady House (WSH).
Platoon edges to target
- Nico Hoerner (CHC) — righty bat vs LHP, .261 against lefties this year.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .372 against righties this year.
- Adrian Del Castillo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .300 against righties this year.
- Daulton Varsho (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .213 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .216 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Chandler Simpson (TB), Adrian Del Castillo (AZ), Daulton Varsho (TOR), Connor Norby (MIA), Carlos Correa (HOU), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT). Cold but due to bounce back: Curtis Mead (WSH), Justin Crawford (PHI), Nick Yorke (PIT), Edgar Quero (CWS), and Luis Robert Jr. (NYM).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Gunnar Henderson finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.