Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, April 16, 2026
Top hits spot: Ramón Laureano
Ramón Laureano (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. The righty is hitting .268 H/PA against righties this year — and .255 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Luis Castillo has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .423 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Luis Castillo too — .400 across 5 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Edouard Julien (COL) (92) vs RHP Ryan Weiss: a strong bat at .253 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), due to bounce back.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (91) vs RHP Chase Burns: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).
- Jo Adell (LAA) (82) vs LHP Max Fried: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
- Jose Altuve (HOU) (82) vs RHP Juan Mejia: a solid bat at .248 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.267), due to bounce back.
- Brendan Donovan (SEA) (80) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a solid bat at .240 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316).
- Dane Myers (CIN) (79) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a strong bat at .259 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.300).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (78) vs LHP Max Fried: a solid bat at .245 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Luis Castillo has been getting tattooed by righties — .290 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ramón Laureano (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Jackson Merrill (SD).
- RHP Ryan Weiss has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Edouard Julien (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Mickey Moniak (COL).
- LHP Patrick Corbin has been vulnerable to lefties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: William Contreras (MIL), Brandon Lockridge (MIL), and Brice Turang (MIL).
- RHP Walker Buehler has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brendan Donovan (SEA), Cal Raleigh (SEA), and Julio Rodríguez (SEA).
Platoon edges to target
- Edouard Julien (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .292 against righties this year.
- Jo Adell (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .333 against lefties this year.
- Brendan Donovan (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .244 against righties this year.
- Mike Trout (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .267 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Ramón Laureano (SD), Mike Trout (LAA), Jackson Merrill (SD), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), Yandy Díaz (TB), and William Contreras (MIL). Cold but due to bounce back: Edouard Julien (COL), Jose Altuve (HOU), James Wood (WSH), Zack Gelof (ATH), and Oneil Cruz (PIT).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Ramón Laureano finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.