Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, April 27, 2026
Top hits spot: Moisés Ballesteros
Moisés Ballesteros (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Vásquez. The lefty is hitting .367 H/PA against righties this year — and .518 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 32% of his trips. And Randy Vásquez has been mostly holding up against righties lately — .214 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.1 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Randy Vásquez too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (100) vs LHP Parker Messick: a strong bat at .263 into an arm tough on the same side (.194), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (99) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.296).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (94) vs RHP Dustin May: a strong bat at .256 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.306).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (93) vs RHP Chris Paddack: a strong bat at .258 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.320).
- Michael Busch (CHC) (91) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: a strong bat at .253 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.214), hot bat.
- Angel Martínez (CLE) (90) vs LHP Steven Matz: a strong bat at .253 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.313).
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (89) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: a strong bat at .254 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.267).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .280 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Ryan O'Hearn (PIT), and Billy Cook (PIT).
- RHP Luis Castillo has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Byron Buxton (MIN), Brooks Lee (MIN), and Ryan Jeffers (MIN).
- LHP Anthony Kay has been vulnerable to lefties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Vaughn Grissom (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Oswald Peraza (LAA).
- RHP Chris Paddack has been vulnerable to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Will Smith (LAD), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Moisés Ballesteros (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .367 against righties this year.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .320 against lefties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .262 against righties this year.
- Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .200 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Moisés Ballesteros (CHC), Yandy Díaz (TB), Michael Busch (CHC), Ernie Clement (TOR), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Josh Jung (TEX). Cold but due to bounce back: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Daulton Varsho (TOR), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Cody Bellinger (NYY).
How it played out
5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Moisés Ballesteros finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.