Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Top hits spot: Moisés Ballesteros
Moisés Ballesteros (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Walker Buehler. The lefty is hitting .365 H/PA against righties this year — and .481 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 32% of his trips. And Walker Buehler has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .345 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Walker Buehler, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (83) vs RHP Shane Baz: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.293), hot bat.
- Matt Chapman (SF) (80) vs LHP Jesús Luzardo: a strong bat at .265 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.350).
- Dalton Rushing (LAD) (80) vs RHP Janson Junk: a strong bat at .262 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.240).
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (79) vs RHP Chad Patrick: an excellent bat at .278 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.217), hot bat.
- Jung Hoo Lee (SF) (76) vs LHP Jesús Luzardo: a strong bat at .268 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.273).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (75) vs RHP Janson Junk: a strong bat at .261 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.240).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (75) vs RHP Chase Burns: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm tough on the same side (.111), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Zack Littell has been vulnerable to righties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Juan Soto (NYM), Bo Bichette (NYM), and Francisco Alvarez (NYM).
- RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Moisés Ballesteros (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Nico Hoerner (CHC).
- LHP Jesús Luzardo has been vulnerable to lefties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Chapman (SF), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Greg Jones (MIL), Jake Bauers (MIL), and Luis Rengifo (MIL).
Platoon edges to target
- Moisés Ballesteros (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .365 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .267 against righties this year.
- Matt Chapman (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .286 against lefties this year.
- Dalton Rushing (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .327 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Moisés Ballesteros (CHC), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Mickey Moniak (COL), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Max Muncy (LAD). Cold but due to bounce back: Oneil Cruz (PIT), Greg Jones (MIL), Kyle Stowers (MIA), Maikel Garcia (KC), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
How it played out
5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Moisés Ballesteros finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.