Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, May 3, 2026
Top hits spot: Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is hitting .368 H/PA against lefties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 32% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties lately — .278 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — .444 across 27 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (90) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: a strong bat at .268 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.387), due to bounce back.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (87) vs RHP Spencer Strider: an excellent bat at .299 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) (82) vs LHP Parker Messick: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (81) vs RHP Jack Leiter: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.265).
- Moisés Ballesteros (CHC) (80) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .251 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364), due to bounce back.
- Edouard Julien (COL) (79) vs RHP Spencer Strider: a strong bat at .267 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (77) vs LHP Jesús Luzardo: a strong bat at .266 into an arm tough on the same side (.161), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Max Muncy (LAD).
- LHP Matthew Boyd has been vulnerable to lefties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), and Ildemaro Vargas (AZ).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Moisés Ballesteros (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Ian Happ (CHC).
- LHP Anthony Kay has been vulnerable to lefties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Miguel Andujar (SD), Ramón Laureano (SD), and Manny Machado (SD).
Platoon edges to target
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .368 against lefties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .289 against lefties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .297 against lefties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .291 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Ozzie Albies (ATL) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Mickey Moniak (COL), Jacob Wilson (ATH), Otto Lopez (MIA), Miguel Andujar (SD), and Byron Buxton (MIN). Cold but due to bounce back: Ketel Marte (AZ), Moisés Ballesteros (CHC), Edouard Julien (COL), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Ozzie Albies finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.