Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, May 4, 2026
Top hits spot: Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Huascar Brazobán. The lefty is hitting .333 H/PA against righties this year — and .386 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 30% of his trips. And Huascar Brazobán has been tough on righties lately — .200 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 4 career PA against Huascar Brazobán. It all sets up in a hitter's park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nico Hoerner (CHC) (86) vs RHP Chase Petty: a solid bat at .232 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (83) vs RHP Aaron Nola: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.304), hot bat.
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) (82) vs RHP Chase Petty: a strong bat at .264 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Alex Bregman (CHC) (80) vs RHP Chase Petty: a league-average bat at .224 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), due to bounce back.
- Tyler Black (MIL) (79) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.357).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (79) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a solid bat at .244 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.357), hot bat.
- Jung Hoo Lee (SF) (78) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: a strong bat at .268 into an arm tough on the same side (.167), due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Chase Petty has been getting tattooed by righties — .315 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nico Hoerner (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Alex Bregman (CHC).
- RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .289 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Tyler Black (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and Jackson Chourio (MIL).
- LHP Tyler Holton has been vulnerable to lefties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jarren Duran (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Aroldis Chapman (BOS).
- RHP Shane Baz has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Cody Bellinger (NYY), Max Schuemann (NYY), and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY).
Platoon edges to target
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
- Tyler Black (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .429 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year.
- Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .267 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Mickey Moniak (COL) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Mickey Moniak (COL), Otto Lopez (MIA), Brice Turang (MIL), Cody Bellinger (NYY), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Xavier Edwards (MIA). Cold but due to bounce back: Alex Bregman (CHC), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Daniel Schneemann (CLE), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Dane Myers (CIN).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Mickey Moniak finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.