Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, May 8, 2026
Top hits spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Carmen Mlodzinski. The lefty is hitting .330 H/PA against righties this year — and .414 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 30% of his trips. And Carmen Mlodzinski has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .321 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Carmen Mlodzinski, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (88) vs RHP Chase Dollander: an elite bat at .300 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.276), hot bat.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (84) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .258 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (82) vs RHP Nolan McLean: an excellent bat at .286 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (82) vs LHP Foster Griffin: an elite bat at .302 into an arm tough on the same side (.118), hot bat.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (81) vs RHP Chase Dollander: a strong bat at .260 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.276), due to bounce back.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) (80) vs RHP Dylan Cease: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.300), hot bat.
- Jung Hoo Lee (SF) (80) vs RHP Carmen Mlodzinski: a solid bat at .248 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.321).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Reid Detmers has been vulnerable to lefties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), George Springer (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR).
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
- RHP Kumar Rocker has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Michael Conforto (CHC), Nico Hoerner (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).
- LHP Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable to lefties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Braden Shewmake (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Shay Whitcomb (HOU).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .330 against righties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .327 against righties this year.
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .329 against righties this year.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .409 against lefties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .265 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Brandon Marsh (PHI), Shea Langeliers (ATH), Otto Lopez (MIA), Nolan Schanuel (LAA), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and JJ Bleday (CIN). Cold but due to bounce back: Bryce Harper (PHI), Taylor Ward (BAL), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), George Springer (TOR), and Josh Jung (TEX).
How it played out
10 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Luis Arraez finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.