Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, May 9, 2026
Top hits spot: Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez (MIA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Richard Lovelady. The righty is hitting .425 H/PA against lefties this year — and .556 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Richard Lovelady has been tough on lefties lately — .100 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Richard Lovelady, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (94) vs RHP Luis Castillo: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.242).
- Austin Martin (MIN) (93) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: an excellent bat at .270 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263), hot bat.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (92) vs RHP Joe Ryan: a strong bat at .263 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), hot bat.
- Ezequiel Duran (TEX) (89) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: a strong bat at .270 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (89) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at .251 into an arm tough on the same side (.174), hot bat.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (88) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: an excellent bat at .295 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (87) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: an excellent bat at .296 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Anthony Kay has been getting tattooed by lefties — .291 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Julio Rodríguez (SEA), Rob Refsnyder (SEA), and Cal Raleigh (SEA).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Juan Soto (NYM), MJ Melendez (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM).
- RHP Dustin May has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Gavin Sheets (SD), and Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been giving up plenty to lefties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Brandon Marsh (PHI).
Platoon edges to target
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .425 against lefties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .270 against righties this year.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .221 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .212 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .320 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Otto Lopez (MIA), Austin Martin (MIN), Chase DeLauter (CLE), Ezequiel Duran (TEX), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Nolan Schanuel (LAA). Cold but due to bounce back: Dane Myers (CIN), Mickey Moniak (COL), MJ Melendez (NYM), Rob Refsnyder (SEA), and Josh Jung (TEX).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Otto Lopez finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.