Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, May 11, 2026
Top hits spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Roki Sasaki. The lefty is hitting .317 H/PA against righties this year — and .296 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Roki Sasaki has been tough on righties lately — .143 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Roki Sasaki too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Christian Walker (HOU) (94) vs RHP George Kirby: a strong bat at .268 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263), due to bounce back.
- Brandon Nimmo (TEX) (92) vs RHP Michael Soroka: a solid bat at .227 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364), due to bounce back.
- Jonny DeLuca (TB) (91) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a strong bat at .252 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.273), due to bounce back.
- Jung Hoo Lee (SF) (91) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a strong bat at .253 into an arm tough on the same side (.143).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (89) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a solid bat at .249 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), due to bounce back.
- Josh Jung (TEX) (87) vs RHP Michael Soroka: an elite bat at .302 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Jose Altuve (HOU) (84) vs RHP George Kirby: a solid bat at .232 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Michael Soroka has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Josh Jung (TEX), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX).
- LHP Brent Suter has been vulnerable to lefties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Steven Kwan (CLE), José Ramírez (CLE), and Petey Halpin (CLE).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .317 against righties this year.
- Brandon Nimmo (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .223 against righties this year.
- Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .266 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Zach Neto (LAA), Josh Naylor (SEA), Kazuma Okamoto (TOR), and Braden Shewmake (HOU). Cold but due to bounce back: Christian Walker (HOU), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Jonny DeLuca (TB), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Ben Rice (NYY).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Luis Arraez finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.