Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, May 10, 2026
Top hits spot: Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Keegan Akin. The righty is hitting .357 H/PA against lefties this year — and .588 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Keegan Akin has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .438 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Keegan Akin, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Gonzales (PIT) (88) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: an excellent bat at .298 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.389).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (81) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a strong bat at .262 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (74) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a strong bat at .253 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.280), due to bounce back.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (72) vs LHP Justin Wrobleski: an elite bat at .314 into an arm tough on the same side (.135).
- Ernie Clement (TOR) (71) vs RHP José Soriano: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (70) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a solid bat at .234 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.313).
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) (70) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a solid bat at .246 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.280).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Gavin Sheets (SD), and Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD).
- LHP Keegan Akin has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shea Langeliers (ATH), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Brent Rooker (ATH).
- RHP Tyler Mahle has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Gonzales (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Jared Triolo (PIT).
- RHP Cade Cavalli has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Liam Hicks (MIA), Xavier Edwards (MIA), and Otto Lopez (MIA).
Platoon edges to target
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .357 against lefties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .283 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — righty bat vs LHP, .364 against lefties this year.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .195 against righties this year.
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Shea Langeliers (ATH), Brandon Marsh (PHI), Otto Lopez (MIA), Willi Castro (COL), Adley Rutschman (BAL), and Nick Kurtz (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: Liam Hicks (MIA), Juan Soto (NYM), Nico Hoerner (CHC), Gavin Sheets (SD), and Brandon Nimmo (TEX).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Shea Langeliers finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.