Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, May 15, 2026
Top hits spot: Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The lefty is hitting .355 H/PA against lefties this year — and .261 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .357 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — .313 across 16 career trips. It all sets up in a hitter's park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Austin Martin (MIN) (96) vs RHP Coleman Crow: an excellent bat at .270 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (93) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .269 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.261), hitter's park.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (92) vs RHP Janson Junk: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.265), hot bat.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (91) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: an excellent bat at .298 into an arm tough on the same side (.176).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (91) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (91) vs RHP Joe Ryan: a strong bat at .266 into an arm tough on the same side (.000).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (90) vs RHP Dustin May: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.227), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Trey Yesavage has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Riley Greene (DET), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Dillon Dingler (DET).
- RHP Aaron Civale has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been giving up plenty to lefties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Corbin Carroll (AZ), Ketel Marte (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
- RHP Janson Junk has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Jonny DeLuca (TB).
Platoon edges to target
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .310 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
- Troy Johnston (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .325 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Corbin Carroll (AZ) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Braden Shewmake (HOU), Riley Greene (DET), Rafael Devers (SF), and Luis García Jr. (WSH). Cold but due to bounce back: William Contreras (MIL), Brandon Lowe (PIT), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Ozzie Albies (ATL), and Andrew McCutchen (TEX).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Corbin Carroll finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.