Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, May 16, 2026
Top hits spot: Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Severino. The lefty is hitting .306 H/PA against righties this year — and .286 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Luis Severino has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .429 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Luis Severino too — .455 across 11 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (90) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: a strong bat at .256 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.318).
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (88) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.273).
- Jung Hoo Lee (SF) (86) vs RHP Luis Severino: a solid bat at .237 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.429).
- Austin Martin (MIN) (85) vs RHP Logan Henderson: a strong bat at .269 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (84) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.381), hitter's park.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (83) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm tough on the same side (.174), hot bat.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (83) vs LHP Payton Tolle: a strong bat at .264 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Luis Severino has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
- RHP Casey Mize has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), George Springer (TOR), and Myles Straw (TOR).
- RHP Trevor McDonald has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Carlos Cortes (ATH), and Shea Langeliers (ATH).
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Ketel Marte (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .306 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .221 against righties this year.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .311 against righties this year.
- Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year.
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .316 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) at 84.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Braden Shewmake (HOU), Samuel Basallo (BAL), Riley Greene (DET), and Spencer Steer (CIN). Cold but due to bounce back: Petey Halpin (CLE), Kevin McGonigle (DET), Vinnie Pasquantino (KC), Willi Castro (COL), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Luis Arraez finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.