Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, May 18, 2026
Top hits spot: Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Andrew Painter. The lefty is hitting .276 H/PA against righties this year — and .409 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to righties lately — .273 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Andrew Painter, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) (78) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: an excellent bat at .270 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.323).
- Spencer Steer (CIN) (77) vs RHP Andrew Painter: a solid bat at .242 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.294), hot bat.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (77) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (75) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a solid bat at .232 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (75) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: a strong bat at .259 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316).
- Dane Myers (CIN) (74) vs RHP Andrew Painter: a strong bat at .261 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.294).
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (74) vs LHP Patrick Corbin: an excellent bat at .270 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Slade Cecconi has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dillon Dingler (DET), Colt Keith (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).
- RHP Seth Lugo has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Mickey Gasper (BOS), Wilyer Abreu (BOS), and Jarren Duran (BOS).
- LHP Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable to lefties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Edmundo Sosa (PHI).
- LHP Kendry Rojas has been vulnerable to lefties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU).
Platoon edges to target
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .276 against righties this year.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .267 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .222 against lefties this year.
- Carson Benge (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .215 against righties this year.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .273 against lefties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Kyle Higashioka (TEX) at 70.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Spencer Steer (CIN), Angel Martínez (CLE), Miguel Andujar (SD), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Jake Bauers (MIL). Cold but due to bounce back: Austin Martin (MIN), Colt Keith (DET), Will Brennan (SF), Edmundo Sosa (PHI), and Petey Halpin (CLE).
How it played out
5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Elly De La Cruz finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.