Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, May 19, 2026
Top hits spot: Justin Foscue
Justin Foscue (TEX) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Sammy Peralta. The righty is hitting .667 H/PA against lefties this year — and .667 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Sammy Peralta has been thin against lefties lately — — hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Sammy Peralta, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (91) vs LHP Sammy Peralta: a solid bat at .226 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Spencer Steer (CIN) (88) vs LHP Jesús Luzardo: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.258), hot bat.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (86) vs RHP Chase Burns: a strong bat at .268 into an arm tough on the same side (.208).
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (86) vs RHP Chase Burns: an excellent bat at .290 into an arm tough on the same side (.208).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (85) vs RHP Bryce Miller: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375).
- Konnor Griffin (PIT) (85) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.282), hot bat.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (84) vs LHP Bailey Falter: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (1.000), due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Jason Alexander has been getting tattooed by righties — .293 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Byron Buxton (MIN), and Ryan Kreidler (MIN).
- LHP Bailey Falter has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Jarren Duran (BOS).
- RHP Landen Roupp has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nolan Arenado (AZ), Ketel Marte (AZ), and Ildemaro Vargas (AZ).
- LHP Sammy Peralta has been vulnerable to lefties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Justin Foscue (TEX), Joc Pederson (TEX), and Sam Haggerty (TEX).
Platoon edges to target
- Justin Foscue (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .667 against lefties this year.
- Spencer Steer (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .302 against lefties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .264 against righties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .326 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Justin Foscue (TEX) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Spencer Steer (CIN), Konnor Griffin (PIT), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Miguel Andujar (SD), Ezequiel Tovar (COL), and Samuel Basallo (BAL). Cold but due to bounce back: Joc Pederson (TEX), Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Sam Haggerty (TEX), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Brice Turang (MIL).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Justin Foscue finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.