Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, May 29, 2026
Top hits spot: Willy Adames
Willy Adames (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The righty is hitting .260 H/PA against righties this year — and .326 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .346 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .100 in 10 career PA against Michael Lorenzen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a hitter's park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (98) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hitter's park.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (85) vs RHP George Kirby: an excellent bat at .292 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375), hot bat.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (77) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm tough on the same side (.191), hot bat.
- Sung-Mun Song (SD) (75) vs RHP Paxton Schultz: a solid bat at .237 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.667), due to bounce back.
- Troy Johnston (COL) (74) vs RHP Logan Webb: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hitter's park.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (74) vs RHP Logan Webb: a solid bat at .246 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (74) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .245 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hitter's park.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Paxton Schultz has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sung-Mun Song (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).
- RHP Erick Fedde has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Hao-Yu Lee (DET), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
- RHP Logan Webb has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Troy Johnston (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Jake McCarthy (COL).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .306 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .248 against righties this year.
- Sung-Mun Song (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .191 against righties this year.
- Troy Johnston (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .318 against righties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .260 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Willy Adames (SF) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Willy Adames (SF), Ketel Marte (AZ), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Jarren Duran (BOS), and Andy Pages (LAD). Cold but due to bounce back: Sung-Mun Song (SD), TJ Rumfield (COL), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Lawrence Butler (ATH), and Wade Meckler (LAA).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Willy Adames finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.