Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, May 28, 2026
Top hits spot: Spencer Horwitz
Spencer Horwitz (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Colin Rea. The lefty is hitting .252 H/PA against righties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Colin Rea has been tough on righties lately — .200 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 12 career PA against Colin Rea. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (95) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .250 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.360), hot bat.
- Colt Keith (DET) (93) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .252 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.360).
- Riley Greene (DET) (87) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.360).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (79) vs RHP Simeon Woods Richardson: a strong bat at .253 into an arm tough on the same side (.158).
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (79) vs LHP Chris Sale: an elite bat at .307 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (78) vs RHP Chris Bassitt: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.235).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (77) vs RHP Davis Martin: a solid bat at .236 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.296).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Colt Keith (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).
- RHP Davis Martin has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Byron Buxton (MIN), Orlando Arcia (MIN), and Brooks Lee (MIN).
Platoon edges to target
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .259 against righties this year.
- Colt Keith (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .289 against righties this year.
- Riley Greene (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .270 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .265 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Spencer Horwitz (PIT), Kevin McGonigle (DET), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Chase Meidroth (CWS). Cold but due to bounce back: Jhostynxon Garcia (PIT), Weston Wilson (BAL), Mike Trout (LAA), Derek Hill (CWS), and Zach McKinstry (DET).
How it played out
5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Spencer Horwitz finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.