Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, May 31, 2026
Top hits spot: Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jacob Lopez. The righty is hitting .281 H/PA against lefties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Jacob Lopez has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .333 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Jacob Lopez too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (99) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375), hitter's park.
- Willi Castro (COL) (95) vs LHP Robbie Ray: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.297), hitter's park.
- Jonah Cox (SF) (94) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .245 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.321), hitter's park.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (93) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .247 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375), hitter's park.
- Willy Adames (SF) (86) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .248 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.321), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (BOS) (85) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: an excellent bat at .299 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278), hot bat.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) (84) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .262 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Jordan Wicks has been getting tattooed by lefties — .301 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Iván Herrera (STL), and Victor Scott II (STL).
- RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Jonah Cox (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Nico Hoerner (CHC), and Alex Bregman (CHC).
- LHP Ranger Suarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and José Ramírez (CLE).
Platoon edges to target
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .281 against lefties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year.
- Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .327 against lefties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .217 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Luis Arraez (SF) at 99.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (BOS), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Josh Jung (TEX), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Travis Bazzana (CLE). Cold but due to bounce back: Willy Adames (SF), Ketel Marte (AZ), Starling Marte (KC), Victor Scott II (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Paul Goldschmidt finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.