Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, June 1, 2026
Top hits spot: Casey Schmitt
Casey Schmitt (SF) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Shane Drohan. The righty is hitting .397 H/PA against lefties this year — and .571 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Shane Drohan has been thin against lefties lately — — hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Shane Drohan, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Josh Jung (TEX) (92) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.533), hot bat.
- Wade Meckler (LAA) (88) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .240 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.273).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (84) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .218 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.394).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (83) vs RHP Ty Madden: a strong bat at .255 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hot bat.
- Vaughn Grissom (LAA) (83) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .228 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.394).
- Jo Adell (LAA) (78) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .237 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.394).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (77) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a strong bat at .263 into an arm tough on the same side (.167), due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Sandy Alcantara has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and Andrés Chaparro (WSH).
- RHP Michael McGreevy has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Jake Burger (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
- RHP Ty Madden has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Victor Mesa Jr. (TB).
- RHP Lyon Richardson has been vulnerable to righties — .260 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Vinnie Pasquantino (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).
Platoon edges to target
- Casey Schmitt (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .397 against lefties this year.
- Mike Trout (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .176 against lefties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.
- Vaughn Grissom (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .193 against lefties this year.
- Jo Adell (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Josh Jung (TEX), Jonathan Aranda (TB), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Juan Soto (NYM), J.P. Crawford (SEA), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Ketel Marte (AZ), Sam Antonacci (CWS), Otto Lopez (MIA), Adam Frazier (LAA), and Bo Bichette (NYM).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Casey Schmitt finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.