Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, June 11, 2026
Top hits spot: Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is hitting .269 H/PA against righties this year — and .410 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .310 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Mitch Keller too — .450 across 20 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Alec Burleson (STL) (91) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm tough on the same side (.174), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (89) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a strong bat at .259 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.310).
- Carson Benge (NYM) (88) vs RHP Hunter Dobbins: a solid bat at .243 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
- Cole Young (SEA) (87) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a solid bat at .240 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375).
- Edouard Julien (COL) (85) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: a solid bat at .242 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.455), hitter's park.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (85) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
- Josh Jung (TEX) (83) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .269 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.321), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Edward Cabrera has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Edouard Julien (COL), Troy Johnston (COL), and Willi Castro (COL).
- RHP Mitch Keller has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD).
- RHP Michael Wacha has been giving up plenty to righties — .255 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Jung (TEX), Wyatt Langford (TEX), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX).
Platoon edges to target
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .269 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .288 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .232 against righties this year.
- Carson Benge (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .223 against righties this year.
- Cole Young (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .232 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Edouard Julien (COL) at 85.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Alec Burleson (STL), Josh Jung (TEX), Chase Meidroth (CWS), Josh Naylor (SEA), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC). Cold but due to bounce back: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Bo Bichette (NYM), Luke Raley (SEA), and Samuel Basallo (BAL).
How it played out
9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Freddie Freeman finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.