Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026
Top hits spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is hitting .228 H/PA against righties this year — and .409 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been giving up plenty to righties lately — .250 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael Lorenzen too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Wade Meckler (LAA) (78) vs RHP Ryne Nelson: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.289), due to bounce back.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (77) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a strong bat at .264 into an arm tough on the same side (.188), due to bounce back.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (77) vs RHP Troy Melton: a strong bat at .256 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.350).
- Josh Jung (TEX) (76) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .266 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (75) vs LHP Andrew Alvarez: an excellent bat at .271 into an arm tough on the same side (.160), hot bat.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (75) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .267 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hot bat.
- Michael Busch (CHC) (75) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .235 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Alex Bregman (CHC).
- RHP Nick Martinez has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and Freddie Freeman (LAD).
- RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Lawrence Butler (ATH), and Tyler Soderstrom (ATH).
- RHP Troy Melton has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Christian Walker (HOU).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .228 against righties this year.
- Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .300 against righties this year.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .284 against lefties this year.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .290 against lefties this year.
- Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .214 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Alec Burleson (STL), Michael Busch (CHC), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Carter Jensen (KC). Cold but due to bounce back: Wade Meckler (LAA), Yandy Díaz (TB), Blake Dunn (CIN), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Michael Conforto (CHC).
Lineup watch
180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.